Canopy Growth Corporation (TSE:WEED) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Last week, you might have seen that Canopy Growth Corporation (TSE:WEED) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to CA$1.65 in the past week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 7.1% short of analyst estimates at CA$67m, although statutory losses were somewhat better. The per-share loss was CA$0.01, 94% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Canopy Growth's four analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be CA$283.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 45% to CA$0.68. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$301.5m and losses of CA$0.69 per share in 2026.

Check out our latest analysis for Canopy Growth

The analysts have cut their price target 20% to CA$2.64per share, signalling that the declining revenue and ongoing losses are contributing to the lower valuation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Canopy Growth is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 3.7% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 17% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So although Canopy Growth's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Canopy Growth's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Canopy Growth. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Canopy Growth analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Canopy Growth is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.