There's Reason For Concern Over Glacier Media Inc.'s (TSE:GVC) Massive 28% Price Jump

Glacier Media Inc. (TSE:GVC) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 23% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Glacier Media's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Media industry in Canada, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Glacier Media

How Glacier Media Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Glacier Media over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Glacier Media will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is Glacier Media's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Glacier Media's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 11% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 11% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 4.3% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Glacier Media's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Glacier Media appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

The fact that Glacier Media currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Glacier Media (at least 2 which are significant), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.