5N Plus Valuation

Is VNP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VNP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VNP (CA$6.44) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$23.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VNP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VNP?

Key metric: As VNP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VNP. This is calculated by dividing VNP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VNP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25.6x
EarningsUS$15.95m
Market CapUS$422.76m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VNP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VNP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13x
IFOS Itafos
22.8xn/aCA$332.2m
CHE.UN Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund
11.4x2.6%CA$1.4b
MDI Major Drilling Group International
15.3x31.4%CA$717.8m
SLI Standard Lithium
2.7xn/aCA$445.9m
VNP 5N Plus
25.6x29.7%CA$594.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.6x) compared to the peer average (13x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VNP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Chemicals Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VNP 25.6xIndustry Avg. 22.8xNo. of Companies7PE01224364860+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.6x) compared to the North American Chemicals industry average (22.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VNP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VNP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.6x
Fair PE Ratio19.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VNP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$6.44
CA$9.05
+40.5%
5.3%CA$9.81CA$8.53n/a4
Nov ’25CA$7.09
CA$8.48
+19.6%
4.3%CA$8.99CA$8.06n/a4
Oct ’25CA$6.56
CA$8.26
+25.9%
3.3%CA$8.55CA$7.93n/a4
Sep ’25CA$6.95
CA$7.57
+8.9%
4.9%CA$8.00CA$7.09n/a4
Aug ’25CA$6.06
CA$7.04
+16.1%
6.4%CA$7.50CA$6.47n/a4
Jul ’25CA$6.26
CA$6.97
+11.4%
5.3%CA$7.54CA$6.54n/a4
Jun ’25CA$5.77
CA$6.58
+14.0%
4.2%CA$7.02CA$6.27n/a4
May ’25CA$4.66
CA$6.00
+28.7%
1.8%CA$6.09CA$5.83n/a4
Apr ’25CA$4.93
CA$5.93
+20.2%
1.9%CA$6.00CA$5.73n/a4
Mar ’25CA$4.70
CA$5.81
+23.6%
3.6%CA$6.00CA$5.50n/a4
Feb ’25CA$3.88
CA$5.14
+32.5%
6.0%CA$5.60CA$4.86n/a4
Jan ’25CA$3.78
CA$5.07
+34.2%
7.0%CA$5.68CA$4.76n/a4
Dec ’24CA$3.28
CA$5.13
+56.5%
7.4%CA$5.77CA$4.75CA$6.494
Nov ’24CA$3.33
CA$5.16
+55.1%
6.6%CA$5.70CA$4.77CA$7.094
Oct ’24CA$3.50
CA$5.07
+44.8%
5.4%CA$5.51CA$4.76CA$6.564
Sep ’24CA$3.60
CA$5.07
+40.8%
5.4%CA$5.51CA$4.76CA$6.954
Aug ’24CA$3.62
CA$4.39
+21.2%
5.7%CA$4.75CA$4.00CA$6.065
Jul ’24CA$3.26
CA$4.39
+34.6%
5.7%CA$4.75CA$4.00CA$6.265
Jun ’24CA$3.15
CA$4.37
+38.6%
5.9%CA$4.74CA$3.99CA$5.775
May ’24CA$3.12
CA$4.09
+31.2%
5.0%CA$4.50CA$3.98CA$4.665
Apr ’24CA$3.44
CA$4.10
+19.1%
4.9%CA$4.50CA$3.99CA$4.935
Mar ’24CA$2.63
CA$4.10
+55.8%
4.9%CA$4.50CA$3.99CA$4.705
Feb ’24CA$3.20
CA$3.46
+8.1%
17.3%CA$4.50CA$2.94CA$3.885
Jan ’24CA$2.91
CA$3.36
+15.4%
12.2%CA$3.95CA$2.96CA$3.785
Dec ’23CA$2.85
CA$3.36
+17.8%
12.2%CA$3.95CA$2.96CA$3.285

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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