Pulling back 8.0% this week, Silvercorp Metals' TSE:SVM) three-year decline in earnings may be coming into investors focus

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 01, 2021
TSX:SVM
Source: Shutterstock

Silvercorp Metals Inc. (TSE:SVM) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 11% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been pleasing. In fact, the company's share price bested the return of its market index in that time, posting a gain of 91%.

In light of the stock dropping 8.0% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.

View our latest analysis for Silvercorp Metals

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years of share price growth, Silvercorp Metals actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 7.1% per year.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Languishing at just 0.6%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. It could be that the revenue growth of 5.0% per year is viewed as evidence that Silvercorp Metals is growing. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:SVM Earnings and Revenue Growth December 2nd 2021

Take a more thorough look at Silvercorp Metals' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Silvercorp Metals the TSR over the last 3 years was 94%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Silvercorp Metals shareholders are down 38% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 22%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Silvercorp Metals has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

Of course Silvercorp Metals may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

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