Announcement • Nov 04
Stelco's Common Shares to be Delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange Stelco Holdings Inc. ('Stelco' or the 'Company') announced that Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. ('Cliffs') has completed its previously announced acquisition of Stelco (the 'Arrangement') pursuant to a plan of arrangement involving the Company, Cliffs, and 13421422 Canada Inc. (the 'Purchaser'), a wholly owned subsidiary of Cliffs. Immediately prior to the effective date of the transaction, Cliffs and its subsidiaries did not own any common shares ('Stelco Shares') of the Company. The Stelco Shares will be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange and Stelco has applied to cease to be a reporting issuer in Canada. The Toronto Stock Exchange will disseminate a notice announcing the delisting of Stelco Shares in due course. Announcement • Aug 01
Stelco Holdings Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 07, 2024 Stelco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results at 4:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Aug 07, 2024 Announcement • Jul 16
Stelco Expects to Delist from TSX Stelco Holdings Inc. (Stelco or the Company) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement (the Arrangement Agreement) with Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (Cliffs), pursuant to which Cliffs has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Stelco (the Transaction) at a price of CAD 70.00 per share (the Consideration), consisting of CAD 60.00 in cash and 0.454 of a share of Cliffs common stock (equivalent to CAD 10.00 based on the closing price of Cliffs common stock on July 12, 2024) per Stelco share. Upon closing of the Transaction, Stelco expects Cliffs to cause the Stelco common shares to cease to be listed on the TSX and to cause the Company to submit an application to cease to be a reporting issuer under applicable Canadian securities laws. Cliffs common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange. New Risk • Jul 16
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Canadian stocks, typically moving 3.8% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (3.8% average weekly change). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (211% cash payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.5% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 80% After last week's 80% share price gain to CA$65.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 2x in the Metals and Mining industry in Canada. Total returns to shareholders of 140% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$42.59 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 15
Now 53% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 55% to CA$65.00. The fair value is estimated to be CA$42.59, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to decline by 5.6% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 5.3% in the next year. Board Change • Jul 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 7 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Independent Director Betty DelBianco was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 13
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from CA$5.00 to CA$4.16 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CA$2.84b. Net income forecast to grow 5.3% next year vs 33% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Canada. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CA$51.08. Share price fell 6.9% to CA$37.37 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CA$2.97b to CA$2.89b. EPS estimate also fell from CA$5.75 per share to CA$5.00 per share. Net income forecast to grow 21% next year vs 21% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Canada. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CA$51.93. Share price rose 10% to CA$43.33 over the past week. Declared Dividend • May 13
First quarter dividend of CA$0.50 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.50. Ex-date: 16th May 2024 Payment date: 24th May 2024 Dividend yield will be 11%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (44% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (211% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 52% per year over the past 6 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 7.8% over the next year, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • May 10
Stelco Holdings Inc. Approves Regular Quarterly Dividend, Payable on May 24, 2024 Stelco Holdings Inc. approved the payment of a regular quarterly dividend of $0.50 per common share which will be paid on May 24, 2024, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 17, 2024. Reported Earnings • May 09
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$1.14 (up from CA$0.20 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: CA$746.0m (up 8.6% from 1Q 2023). Net income: CA$63.0m (up CA$74.0m from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 8.4% (up from net loss in 1Q 2023). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 19%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Canada are expected to grow by 12%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Apr 28
Stelco Holdings Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 08, 2024 Stelco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results After-Market on May 08, 2024 Announcement • Apr 17
Stelco Holdings Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2024 Stelco Holdings Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2024. Declared Dividend • Feb 25
Fourth quarter dividend increased to CA$0.50 Dividend of CA$0.50 is 19% higher than last year. Ex-date: 29th February 2024 Payment date: 7th March 2024 Dividend yield will be 12%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (62% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 5x free cash flows). The dividend has increased by an average of 52% per year over the past 6 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 51% over the next 2 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 22
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: CA$2.70 (down from CA$14.64 in FY 2022). Revenue: CA$2.92b (down 16% from FY 2022). Net income: CA$149.0m (down 85% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 5.1% (down from 29% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Canada are expected to grow by 15%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 22
Stelco Holdings Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend, Payable on March 7, 2024 Stelco Holdings' Board of Directors approved the payment of a regular quarterly dividend of $0.50 per common share which will be paid on March 7, 2024, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 1, 2024. Announcement • Feb 10
Stelco Holdings Inc. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 21, 2024 Stelco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results After-Market on Feb 21, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Jan 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 20% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from CA$3.72 to CA$2.97 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CA$2.95b. Net income forecast to grow 69% next year vs 30% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Canada. Consensus price target reaffirmed at CA$51.36. Share price fell 3.6% to CA$46.26 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Dec 21
Price target increased by 7.0% to CA$50.21 Up from CA$46.93, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of CA$49.21. Stock is up 8.0% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$3.72 for next year compared to CA$14.64 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 13
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 23% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from CA$3.01 to CA$3.72. Revenue forecast steady at CA$2.96b. Net income forecast to grow 70% next year vs 29% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Canada. Consensus price target up from CA$46.93 to CA$47.93. Share price rose 4.9% to CA$45.68 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Dec 13
Price target increased by 8.8% to CA$47.93 Up from CA$44.07, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of CA$45.78. Stock is up 1.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$3.72 for next year compared to CA$14.64 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to CA$43.94, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Metals and Mining industry in Canada. Total returns to shareholders of 219% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$31.15 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 14
Upcoming dividend of CA$3.42 per share at 11% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 21 November 2023. Payment date: 28 November 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 48% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 11%. Within top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.2%). Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: CA$1.23 (down from CA$2.33 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: CA$776.0m (down 8.3% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CA$68.0m (down 57% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 8.8% (down from 19% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 23%. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Canada are expected to grow by 15%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 34% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 39% per year. Announcement • Nov 01
Stelco Holdings Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 08, 2023 Stelco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results After-Market on Nov 08, 2023 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 31
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to CA$39.08, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Metals and Mining industry in Canada. Total returns to shareholders of 201% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$60.61 per share. Announcement • Sep 22
Stelco Holdings Reportedly Considering Bid for U.S. Steel Stelco Holdings Inc. (TSX:STLC), Canada’s biggest steelmaker, is pursuing a bid for United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), adding to a growing list of suitors for the iconic American company, according to people familiar with the matter. Stelco is seeking to purchase the entire company as it looks to increase its portfolio of steelmaking assets and boost its share of the market for supplying metal to the automotive sector, the people said. Stelco is in talks with a potential partner on its bid, the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private. No final decision has been made and Stelco could opt against making a bid, the people said. Representatives for Stelco and U.S. Steel declined to comment. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 19
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from CA$3.07 to CA$3.62. Revenue forecast steady at CA$2.94b. Net income forecast to shrink 16% next year vs 39% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Canada . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CA$44.64. Share price was steady at CA$36.50 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 10
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from CA$3.07 to CA$3.44. Revenue forecast steady at CA$2.94b. Net income forecast to shrink 24% next year vs 40% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Canada . Consensus price target of CA$45.38 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.9% to CA$38.21 over the past week. Board Change • Sep 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 6 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Independent Director Daryl C. Wilson was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 32% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from CA$3.02b to CA$2.95b. EPS estimate also fell from CA$4.49 per share to CA$3.07 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 27% next year vs 31% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Canada . Consensus price target down from CA$51.94 to CA$45.38. Share price fell 2.0% to CA$40.66 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 11
Price target decreased by 10% to CA$46.69 Down from CA$51.94, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 22% above last closing price of CA$38.40. Stock is up 3.7% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$3.07 for next year compared to CA$14.64 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 10
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: CA$2.12 (down from CA$7.67 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: CA$841.0m (down 19% from 2Q 2022). Net income: CA$117.0m (down 79% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 14% (down from 53% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 25%. Revenue is expected to decline by 5.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Canada are expected to grow by 14%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 58% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 63% per year. Announcement • Aug 10
Stelco Holdings Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on August 24, 2023 Stelco Holdings Inc. declared quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share, payable on August 24, 2023 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 18, 2023. Announcement • Jul 29
Stelco Holdings Inc. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 09, 2023 Stelco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results After-Market on Aug 09, 2023 Reported Earnings • May 12
First quarter 2023 earnings released: CA$0.20 loss per share (vs CA$3.52 profit in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: CA$0.20 loss per share (down from CA$3.52 profit in 1Q 2022). Revenue: CA$687.0m (down 24% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: CA$11.0m (down 104% from profit in 1Q 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 5.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Metals and Mining industry in Canada are expected to grow by 12%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 82% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 90% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • May 11
Stelco Holdings Approves the Payment of Regular Quarterly Dividend, Payable on May 23, 2023 Stelco Holdings Board of Directors approved the payment of a regular quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share which will be paid on May 23, 2023, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 18, 2023. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 03
Insider recently sold CA$165k worth of stock On the 30th of March, Adolfo Montiel sold around 3k shares on-market at roughly CA$51.68 per share. This transaction amounted to 100% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$213k more than they bought in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 03
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to CA$60.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Metals and Mining industry in Canada. Total returns to shareholders of 936% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$28.47 per share. Announcement • Feb 11
Stelco Holdings Inc. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 22, 2023 Stelco Holdings Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results After-Market on Feb 22, 2023