Earnings Miss: Aura Minerals Inc. Missed EPS By 46% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Aura Minerals Inc. (TSE:ORA), which a week ago released some disappointing yearly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$417m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 46%, coming in at just US$0.44 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aura Minerals

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Aura Minerals' four analysts is for revenues of US$529.8m in 2024. This reflects a substantial 27% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 297% to US$1.75. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$534.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.77 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CA$14.61, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Aura Minerals analyst has a price target of CA$19.09 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$12.47. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Aura Minerals' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 27% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 18% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aura Minerals is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$14.61, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aura Minerals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Aura Minerals is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.