Major Drilling Group International Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of MDI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MDI (CA$8.68) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$28.03)

Is MDI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MDI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MDI (CA$8.68) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$28.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MDI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MDI?

Key metric: As MDI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MDI. This is calculated by dividing MDI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MDI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	17.1x
Earnings	CA$41.65m
Market Cap	CA$707.12m

MDI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.6x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MDI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MDI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	28.7x
SLI Standard Lithium	2.4x	n/a	CA$403.0m
QRC Queen's Road Capital Investment	13.9x	n/a	CA$372.7m
AFM Alphamin Resources	13.2x	n/a	CA$1.4b
ALS Altius Minerals	85.2x	9.0%	CA$1.2b
MDI Major Drilling Group International	17.1x	51.2%	CA$707.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MDI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the peer average (28.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MDI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

36 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
SLI Standard Lithium	2.4x	n/a	US$282.81m
APM Andean Precious Metals	2.5x	-42.9%	US$144.02m
THX Thor Explorations	2.8x	2.5%	US$136.02m
STGO Steppe Gold	2.3x	-11.5%	US$120.65m

36 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MDI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (13.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MDI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MDI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.1x
Fair PE Ratio	28.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MDI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MDI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CA$8.68	CA$13.75 +58.4%	15.7%	CA$17.00	CA$11.00	n/a	4
Dec ’25	CA$8.59	CA$13.75 +60.1%	14.0%	CA$16.00	CA$11.00	n/a	4
Nov ’25	CA$8.30	CA$13.50 +62.7%	17.0%	CA$16.00	CA$10.00	n/a	4
Oct ’25	CA$8.42	CA$13.50 +60.3%	17.0%	CA$16.00	CA$10.00	n/a	4
Sep ’25	CA$9.46	CA$14.75 +55.9%	19.4%	CA$19.00	CA$11.00	n/a	4
Aug ’25	CA$9.25	CA$14.75 +59.5%	19.4%	CA$19.00	CA$11.00	n/a	4
Jul ’25	CA$9.08	CA$14.75 +62.4%	19.4%	CA$19.00	CA$11.00	n/a	4
Jun ’25	CA$9.94	CA$14.75 +48.4%	19.4%	CA$19.00	CA$11.00	n/a	4
May ’25	CA$9.52	CA$15.10 +58.6%	17.6%	CA$19.00	CA$11.00	n/a	5
Apr ’25	CA$9.11	CA$15.10 +65.8%	17.6%	CA$19.00	CA$11.00	n/a	5
Mar ’25	CA$7.74	CA$15.35 +98.3%	14.9%	CA$19.00	CA$12.25	n/a	5
Feb ’25	CA$8.39	CA$15.65 +86.5%	15.1%	CA$19.00	CA$12.25	n/a	5
Jan ’25	CA$9.21	CA$16.30 +77.0%	10.4%	CA$19.00	CA$14.50	n/a	5
Dec ’24	CA$7.80	CA$16.30 +109.0%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$8.59	5
Nov ’24	CA$7.27	CA$16.30 +124.2%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$8.30	5
Oct ’24	CA$8.27	CA$16.30 +97.1%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$8.42	5
Sep ’24	CA$8.76	CA$16.63 +89.8%	8.1%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$9.46	4
Aug ’24	CA$9.26	CA$16.63 +79.5%	8.1%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$9.25	4
Jul ’24	CA$9.14	CA$16.63 +81.9%	8.1%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$9.08	4
Jun ’24	CA$9.20	CA$16.30 +77.2%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$9.94	5
May ’24	CA$10.81	CA$16.30 +50.8%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$9.52	5
Apr ’24	CA$10.63	CA$16.30 +53.3%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$9.11	5
Mar ’24	CA$11.04	CA$16.30 +47.6%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$7.74	5
Feb ’24	CA$11.05	CA$16.30 +47.5%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$8.39	5
Jan ’24	CA$10.52	CA$16.30 +54.9%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$9.21	5
Dec ’23	CA$9.47	CA$16.30 +72.1%	8.4%	CA$18.00	CA$14.50	CA$7.80	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.