Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Kinross Gold Corporation (TSE:K) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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How Much Debt Does Kinross Gold Carry?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Kinross Gold had US$2.69b in debt in March 2023; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has US$479.5m in cash leading to net debt of about US$2.21b.
How Healthy Is Kinross Gold's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Kinross Gold had liabilities of US$1.13b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$3.42b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$479.5m and US$210.7m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$3.85b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$6.17b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Kinross Gold's net debt of 1.8 times EBITDA suggests graceful use of debt. And the fact that its trailing twelve months of EBIT was 8.5 times its interest expenses harmonizes with that theme. Notably, Kinross Gold's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 329% on last year. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Kinross Gold can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Kinross Gold produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 64% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
The good news is that Kinross Gold's demonstrated ability to grow its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But truth be told we feel its level of total liabilities does undermine this impression a bit. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Kinross Gold can handle its debt fairly comfortably. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Kinross Gold (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:K
Kinross Gold
Engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Canada, and Mauritania.
Solid track record with excellent balance sheet.