Is First Quantum Minerals (TSE:FM) Using Too Much Debt?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (TSE:FM) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for First Quantum Minerals

How Much Debt Does First Quantum Minerals Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2023 First Quantum Minerals had debt of US$8.18b, up from US$7.76b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.13b, its net debt is less, at about US$7.04b.

How Healthy Is First Quantum Minerals' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that First Quantum Minerals had liabilities of US$1.66b due within a year, and liabilities of US$10.6b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.13b as well as receivables valued at US$769.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$10.4b.

This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$16.4b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

First Quantum Minerals's debt is 2.7 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 2.5 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Even worse, First Quantum Minerals saw its EBIT tank 48% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if First Quantum Minerals can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, First Quantum Minerals recorded free cash flow worth 69% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say First Quantum Minerals's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making First Quantum Minerals stock a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that First Quantum Minerals is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.