Aya Gold & Silver Inc.

TSX:AYA Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$1.5b

Aya Gold & Silver Valuation

Is AYA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AYA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CA$45.62
Fair Value
75.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AYA (CA$11.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$45.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AYA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AYA?

Key metric: As AYA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AYA. This is calculated by dividing AYA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AYA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio27.3x
SalesUS$39.12m
Market CapUS$1.07b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AYA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AYA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.7x
EDR Endeavour Silver
5.1x24.6%CA$1.6b
SVM Silvercorp Metals
3.1x21.5%CA$1.2b
FVI Fortuna Mining
1.9x-12.5%CA$2.8b
GGD GoGold Resources
8.9x11.5%CA$615.6m
AYA Aya Gold & Silver
27.3x43.5%CA$1.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AYA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (27.3x) compared to the peer average (4.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AYA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

79 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LUN Lundin Mining
1.9x1.7%US$6.52b
HBM Hudbay Minerals
1.4x4.4%US$2.70b
STLC Stelco Holdings
1.3x-0.1%US$2.66b
OGC OceanaGold
1.9x8.5%US$2.52b
AYA 27.3xIndustry Avg. 3.5xNo. of Companies79PS0816243240+
79 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AYA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (27.3x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (3.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AYA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AYA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio27.3x
Fair PS Ratio3.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AYA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (27.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AYA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$11.41
CA$19.24
+68.7%
16.8%CA$22.76CA$10.96n/a9
Apr ’26CA$11.05
CA$19.43
+75.9%
18.9%CA$23.03CA$9.95n/a9
Mar ’26CA$11.48
CA$20.85
+81.6%
17.0%CA$23.69CA$12.03n/a8
Feb ’26CA$11.68
CA$21.45
+83.6%
16.3%CA$24.47CA$13.01n/a8
Jan ’26CA$10.74
CA$22.25
+107.2%
13.8%CA$26.64CA$14.28n/a10
Dec ’25CA$13.18
CA$22.01
+67.0%
13.9%CA$25.98CA$13.93n/a10
Nov ’25CA$17.80
CA$23.18
+30.2%
9.2%CA$26.55CA$20.06n/a9
Oct ’25CA$17.95
CA$21.21
+18.2%
13.8%CA$25.85CA$17.34n/a9
Sep ’25CA$14.97
CA$20.77
+38.8%
14.1%CA$25.52CA$17.48n/a9
Aug ’25CA$15.14
CA$21.10
+39.4%
14.5%CA$26.08CA$17.44n/a9
Jul ’25CA$13.58
CA$19.56
+44.1%
12.3%CA$22.15CA$16.11n/a7
Jun ’25CA$15.01
CA$18.84
+25.5%
13.2%CA$22.05CA$16.03n/a7
May ’25CA$13.43
CA$17.92
+33.4%
10.2%CA$21.91CA$15.78n/a7
Apr ’25CA$10.97
CA$14.32
+30.5%
9.3%CA$17.05CA$12.50CA$11.057
Mar ’25CA$10.00
CA$14.71
+47.1%
10.3%CA$17.10CA$12.50CA$11.487
Feb ’25CA$10.52
CA$14.67
+39.5%
10.1%CA$17.02CA$12.48CA$11.687
Jan ’25CA$9.71
CA$13.70
+41.1%
14.9%CA$16.95CA$10.42CA$10.747
Dec ’24CA$10.33
CA$13.70
+32.7%
14.9%CA$16.95CA$10.42CA$13.187
Nov ’24CA$7.36
CA$13.89
+88.8%
13.2%CA$17.12CA$11.95CA$17.807
Oct ’24CA$7.29
CA$14.13
+93.8%
11.6%CA$16.93CA$11.70CA$17.957
Sep ’24CA$8.11
CA$14.20
+75.0%
11.6%CA$17.05CA$11.80CA$14.977
Aug ’24CA$8.38
CA$14.02
+67.3%
11.7%CA$17.04CA$11.49CA$15.147
Jul ’24CA$8.49
CA$13.84
+63.0%
12.2%CA$17.00CA$11.34CA$13.587
Jun ’24CA$9.47
CA$13.78
+45.5%
12.8%CA$16.98CA$10.97CA$15.017
May ’24CA$10.26
CA$13.93
+35.8%
13.2%CA$17.23CA$11.02CA$13.437
Apr ’24CA$10.88
CA$13.43
+23.4%
14.3%CA$16.99CA$11.15CA$10.977
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
CA$19.24
Fair Value
40.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/15 07:00
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/15 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Kevin O'HalloranBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
null nullBMO Capital Markets Equity Research