We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Acadian Timber Valuation

Is ADN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

[object Object] Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ADN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ADN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA17.7x
PEG Ratio-1.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ADN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ADN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.1x
WEF Western Forest Products
3.1x-50.9%CA$348.4m
CFF Conifex Timber
3.1xn/aCA$67.6m
IFP Interfor
1.8x-74.8%CA$1.3b
AEP Atlas Engineered Products
4.4xn/aCA$40.0m
ADN Acadian Timber
12.8x-6.9%CA$263.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ADN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the peer average (3.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ADN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Forestry Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-26.1%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ADN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the Global Forestry industry average (9.9x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ADN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ADN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.8x
Fair PE Ratio5.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ADN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.9x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ADN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ADN (CA$15.21) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$12.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADN is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ADN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$15.21
CA$17.60
+15.7%
9.9%CA$21.00CA$16.00n/a5
Nov ’23CA$15.09
CA$17.60
+16.6%
9.9%CA$21.00CA$16.00n/a5
Oct ’23CA$16.00
CA$18.20
+13.7%
8.1%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
Sep ’23CA$16.68
CA$18.20
+9.1%
8.1%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
Aug ’23CA$17.00
CA$18.45
+8.5%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
Jul ’23CA$16.66
CA$18.45
+10.7%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
Jun ’23CA$18.48
CA$18.45
-0.2%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
May ’23CA$18.83
CA$18.45
-2.0%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
Apr ’23CA$19.04
CA$18.45
-3.1%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
Mar ’23CA$18.96
CA$18.45
-2.7%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
Feb ’23CA$18.57
CA$18.55
-0.1%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
Jan ’23CA$19.18
CA$18.45
-3.8%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00n/a5
Dec ’22CA$17.73
CA$18.45
+4.1%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00CA$15.215
Nov ’22CA$18.60
CA$18.45
-0.8%
7.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00CA$15.095
Oct ’22CA$18.56
CA$18.30
-1.4%
7.7%CA$21.00CA$17.00CA$16.005
Sep ’22CA$18.29
CA$18.30
+0.05%
7.7%CA$21.00CA$17.00CA$16.685
Aug ’22CA$17.56
CA$18.30
+4.2%
7.7%CA$21.00CA$17.00CA$17.005
Jul ’22CA$19.43
CA$18.30
-5.8%
7.7%CA$21.00CA$17.00CA$16.665
Jun ’22CA$18.84
CA$18.30
-2.9%
7.7%CA$21.00CA$17.00CA$18.485
May ’22CA$20.30
CA$18.10
-10.8%
8.3%CA$21.00CA$17.00CA$18.835
Apr ’22CA$19.39
CA$17.50
-9.7%
2.6%CA$18.00CA$17.00CA$19.045
Mar ’22CA$18.21
CA$16.90
-7.2%
3.9%CA$18.00CA$16.00CA$18.965
Feb ’22CA$16.72
CA$16.70
-0.1%
4.5%CA$18.00CA$16.00CA$18.575
Jan ’22CA$16.10
CA$16.90
+5.0%
5.4%CA$18.00CA$16.00CA$19.185
Dec ’21CA$16.00
CA$16.90
+5.6%
5.4%CA$18.00CA$16.00CA$17.735

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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