Stock Analysis

Here's Why Ovintiv (TSE:OVV) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

TSX:OVV
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Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Ovintiv Inc. (TSE:OVV) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

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What Is Ovintiv's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2023 Ovintiv had US$6.13b of debt, an increase on US$3.90b, over one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSX:OVV Debt to Equity History August 3rd 2023

A Look At Ovintiv's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Ovintiv had liabilities of US$3.31b due within a year, and liabilities of US$6.89b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$52.0m as well as receivables valued at US$1.26b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$8.89b.

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of US$12.8b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Ovintiv's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Ovintiv's net debt is only 1.2 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 12.3 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. On top of that, Ovintiv grew its EBIT by 40% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ovintiv's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Ovintiv recorded free cash flow worth 69% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

The good news is that Ovintiv's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its level of total liabilities. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Ovintiv is pretty sensible with its use of debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Ovintiv is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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Find out whether Ovintiv is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.