North American Construction Group Ltd.

TSX:NOA Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$821.5m

North American Construction Group Valuation

Is NOA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NOA (CA$30.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$101.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NOA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.3x
PEG Ratio0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.6x
TCW Trican Well Service
7.1x-4.6%CA$859.3m
TVK TerraVest Industries
23.2xn/aCA$1.1b
CEU CES Energy Solutions
7.1x2.1%CA$1.1b
PSI Pason Systems
12.9x11.9%CA$1.3b
NOA North American Construction Group
13x36.0%CA$821.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the peer average (12.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Energy Services Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the North American Energy Services industry average (11.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13x
Fair PE Ratio14.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$30.73
CA$41.50
+35.0%
14.5%CA$52.00CA$33.00n/a8
Mar ’25CA$34.36
CA$40.06
+16.6%
13.0%CA$48.00CA$32.50n/a8
Feb ’25CA$30.27
CA$39.81
+31.5%
12.4%CA$48.00CA$32.50n/a8
Jan ’25CA$27.65
CA$39.81
+44.0%
12.4%CA$48.00CA$32.50n/a8
Dec ’24CA$27.80
CA$39.44
+41.9%
12.2%CA$48.00CA$32.50n/a8
Nov ’24CA$27.76
CA$40.19
+44.8%
11.4%CA$48.00CA$32.50n/a8
Oct ’24CA$29.43
CA$40.44
+37.4%
11.0%CA$48.00CA$32.50n/a8
Sep ’24CA$33.38
CA$39.31
+17.8%
12.1%CA$48.00CA$32.50n/a8
Aug ’24CA$33.21
CA$39.31
+18.4%
12.1%CA$48.00CA$32.50n/a8
Jul ’24CA$25.35
CA$30.19
+19.1%
6.6%CA$33.00CA$27.00n/a8
Jun ’24CA$24.81
CA$30.19
+21.7%
6.6%CA$33.00CA$27.00n/a8
May ’24CA$26.13
CA$30.19
+15.5%
6.6%CA$33.00CA$27.00n/a8
Apr ’24CA$22.54
CA$26.81
+19.0%
9.1%CA$32.00CA$23.50n/a8
Mar ’24CA$23.10
CA$26.81
+16.1%
9.1%CA$32.00CA$23.50CA$34.368
Feb ’24CA$20.44
CA$23.50
+15.0%
6.7%CA$25.00CA$20.00CA$30.278
Jan ’24CA$18.08
CA$22.44
+24.1%
8.6%CA$25.00CA$18.50CA$27.658
Dec ’23CA$18.42
CA$22.19
+20.5%
9.4%CA$25.00CA$18.50CA$27.808
Nov ’23CA$16.85
CA$22.19
+31.7%
9.4%CA$25.00CA$18.50CA$27.768
Oct ’23CA$13.19
CA$21.19
+60.6%
11.7%CA$25.00CA$17.50CA$29.438
Sep ’23CA$14.88
CA$21.19
+42.4%
11.7%CA$25.00CA$17.50CA$33.388
Aug ’23CA$14.30
CA$21.19
+48.2%
11.7%CA$25.00CA$17.50CA$33.218
Jul ’23CA$14.13
CA$26.63
+88.4%
10.1%CA$30.00CA$22.00CA$25.358
Jun ’23CA$16.61
CA$27.00
+62.6%
10.4%CA$30.00CA$22.00CA$24.818
May ’23CA$16.15
CA$27.00
+67.2%
10.4%CA$30.00CA$22.00CA$26.138
Apr ’23CA$18.28
CA$27.00
+47.7%
8.0%CA$30.00CA$23.00CA$22.548
Mar ’23CA$19.19
CA$27.00
+40.7%
8.0%CA$30.00CA$23.00CA$23.108

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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