Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (TSE:KEI) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Kolibri Global Energy Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2023, Kolibri Global Energy had US$17.8m of debt, up from US$16.1m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had US$4.55m in cash, and so its net debt is US$13.3m.
A Look At Kolibri Global Energy's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Kolibri Global Energy had liabilities of US$9.97m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$19.9m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$4.55m as well as receivables valued at US$5.54m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$19.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given Kolibri Global Energy has a market capitalization of US$138.4m, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Kolibri Global Energy's net debt is only 0.34 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 21.3 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Although Kolibri Global Energy made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, it was also good to see that it generated US$28m in EBIT over the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Kolibri Global Energy's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, Kolibri Global Energy recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
Kolibri Global Energy's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its net debt to EBITDA. But truth be told its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow had us nibbling our nails. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Kolibri Global Energy is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Kolibri Global Energy has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About TSX:KEI
Kolibri Global Energy
Engages in the finding and exploiting oil, gas, and clean and sustainable energy in the United States.
Reasonable growth potential with adequate balance sheet.