Stock Analysis

These 4 Measures Indicate That Canadian Natural Resources (TSE:CNQ) Is Using Debt Safely

TSX:CNQ
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSE:CNQ) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Canadian Natural Resources

What Is Canadian Natural Resources's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Canadian Natural Resources had CA$12.9b of debt in September 2022, down from CA$16.8b, one year before. However, it also had CA$968.0m in cash, and so its net debt is CA$12.0b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSX:CNQ Debt to Equity History February 27th 2023

A Look At Canadian Natural Resources' Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Canadian Natural Resources had liabilities of CA$9.13b due within 12 months and liabilities of CA$30.2b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$968.0m as well as receivables valued at CA$3.91b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CA$34.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit isn't so bad because Canadian Natural Resources is worth a massive CA$85.2b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Canadian Natural Resources's net debt is only 0.53 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 26.6 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Even more impressive was the fact that Canadian Natural Resources grew its EBIT by 176% over twelve months. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Canadian Natural Resources can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Canadian Natural Resources actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Our View

Canadian Natural Resources's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. And the good news does not stop there, as its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow also supports that impression! Zooming out, Canadian Natural Resources seems to use debt quite reasonably; and that gets the nod from us. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Canadian Natural Resources (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.