If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. With that in mind, we've noticed some promising trends at Athabasca Oil (TSE:ATH) so let's look a bit deeper.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Athabasca Oil is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.14 = CA$211m ÷ (CA$1.8b - CA$266m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2022).
Thus, Athabasca Oil has an ROCE of 14%. In isolation, that's a pretty standard return but against the Oil and Gas industry average of 21%, it's not as good.
Check out our latest analysis for Athabasca Oil
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Athabasca Oil compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
How Are Returns Trending?
We're delighted to see that Athabasca Oil is reaping rewards from its investments and has now broken into profitability. While the business is profitable now, it used to be incurring losses on invested capital five years ago. At first glance, it seems the business is getting more proficient at generating returns, because over the same period, the amount of capital employed has reduced by 35%. Athabasca Oil could be selling under-performing assets since the ROCE is improving.
The Key Takeaway
In a nutshell, we're pleased to see that Athabasca Oil has been able to generate higher returns from less capital. And a remarkable 114% total return over the last five years tells us that investors are expecting more good things to come in the future. So given the stock has proven it has promising trends, it's worth researching the company further to see if these trends are likely to persist.
On a final note, we found 2 warning signs for Athabasca Oil (1 is significant) you should be aware of.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:ATH
Athabasca Oil
Engages in the exploration, development, and production of thermal and light oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada.
Flawless balance sheet and fair value.