TMX Group Limited

TSX:X Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$12.2b

TMX Group Valuation

Is X undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of X when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: X (CA$43.84) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$26.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: X is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for X?

Key metric: As X is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for X. This is calculated by dividing X's market cap by their current earnings.
What is X's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio29.9x
EarningsCA$406.60m
Market CapCA$12.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does X's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for X vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average50.4x
PVF.UN Partners Value Investments
133xn/aCA$9.1b
IGM IGM Financial
12.7x-0.2%CA$11.1b
GLXY Galaxy Digital Holdings
5.1x37.9%CA$8.1b
WNDR WonderFi Technologies
50.8x97.4%CA$134.7m
X TMX Group
29.9x8.5%CA$12.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: X is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.9x) compared to the peer average (40.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does X's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Capital Markets Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
INXD INX Digital Company
0.3xn/aUS$12.67m
MAR.UN Marwest Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust
0.9xn/aUS$11.02m
CSOC.A Canso Select Opportunities
2.3xn/aUS$9.59m
PXI Planet Ventures
1.7xn/aUS$4.47m
X 29.9xIndustry Avg. 11.4xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: X is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.9x) compared to the Canadian Capital Markets industry average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is X's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

X PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.9x
Fair PE Ratio14.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: X is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst X forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$43.84
CA$47.00
+7.2%
4.4%CA$50.00CA$44.00n/a8
Nov ’25CA$43.52
CA$46.88
+7.7%
4.6%CA$50.00CA$44.00n/a8
Oct ’25CA$42.95
CA$42.94
-0.03%
2.8%CA$45.00CA$41.00n/a8
Sep ’25CA$42.99
CA$42.94
-0.1%
2.8%CA$45.00CA$41.00n/a8
Aug ’25CA$41.38
CA$42.61
+3.0%
6.0%CA$46.00CA$37.00n/a9
Jul ’25CA$38.08
CA$39.44
+3.6%
5.9%CA$44.00CA$36.00n/a9
Jun ’25CA$36.58
CA$39.44
+7.8%
5.9%CA$44.00CA$36.00n/a9
May ’25CA$35.98
CA$38.67
+7.5%
6.9%CA$44.00CA$35.00n/a9
Apr ’25CA$36.14
CA$36.25
+0.3%
6.3%CA$41.00CA$33.00n/a8
Mar ’25CA$35.44
CA$35.63
+0.5%
4.0%CA$38.00CA$33.00n/a8
Feb ’25CA$33.52
CA$34.00
+1.4%
3.9%CA$36.00CA$31.00n/a8
Jan ’25CA$32.05
CA$33.00
+3.0%
4.6%CA$35.00CA$31.00n/a7
Dec ’24CA$29.79
CA$32.00
+7.4%
3.8%CA$34.00CA$30.00n/a8
Nov ’24CA$29.20
CA$32.00
+9.6%
3.8%CA$34.00CA$30.00CA$43.528
Oct ’24CA$29.19
CA$32.63
+11.8%
4.3%CA$34.00CA$30.00CA$42.958
Sep ’24CA$29.39
CA$32.63
+11.0%
4.3%CA$34.00CA$30.00CA$42.998
Aug ’24CA$29.26
CA$32.50
+11.1%
5.1%CA$34.00CA$29.00CA$41.388
Jul ’24CA$29.81
CA$30.83
+3.4%
5.4%CA$34.00CA$28.00CA$38.088
Jun ’24CA$29.23
CA$30.97
+5.9%
5.7%CA$34.00CA$28.00CA$36.587
May ’24CA$27.60
CA$30.14
+9.2%
7.0%CA$34.00CA$27.60CA$35.987
Apr ’24CA$27.30
CA$30.23
+10.7%
6.1%CA$33.60CA$28.00CA$36.147
Mar ’24CA$27.02
CA$30.23
+11.9%
6.1%CA$33.60CA$28.00CA$35.447
Feb ’24CA$26.74
CA$30.80
+15.2%
6.8%CA$34.60CA$28.00CA$33.527
Jan ’24CA$27.10
CA$30.40
+12.2%
5.2%CA$33.00CA$28.00CA$32.057
Dec ’23CA$28.49
CA$30.34
+6.5%
5.3%CA$33.00CA$28.00CA$29.797
Nov ’23CA$25.85
CA$30.29
+17.2%
5.5%CA$33.00CA$28.00CA$29.207

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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