AGF Management Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

AGF Management Limited (TSE:AGF.B) missed earnings with its latest second-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CA$135m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 10%, coming in at just CA$0.36 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, AGF Management's five analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be CA$567.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be CA$1.63, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$570.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$1.62 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for AGF Management

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 5.8% to CA$13.58. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on AGF Management, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$15.00 and the most bearish at CA$11.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting AGF Management is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AGF Management's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.7% over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 30% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that AGF Management is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AGF Management. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple AGF Management analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for AGF Management (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.