Pollard Banknote (TSX:PBL) - Share price, News & Analysis

PBL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

PBL Stock Overview

Pollard Banknote Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of gaming products and services for the lottery and charitable gaming industries worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 15.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 32.57% per year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Profit margins (4.1%) are lower than last year (9.9%)

Pollard Banknote Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Pollard Banknote
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CA$22.15
52 Week High	CA$58.68
52 Week Low	CA$18.94
Beta	0.63
1 Month Change	9.65%
3 Month Change	-8.36%
1 Year Change	-60.61%
3 Year Change	-8.28%
5 Year Change	116.10%
Change since IPO	84.58%

Shareholder Returns

	PBL	CA Hospitality	CA Market
7D	6.6%	7.5%	0.3%
1Y	-60.6%	-21.2%	-4.0%

Return vs Industry: PBL underperformed the Canadian Hospitality industry which returned -21.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PBL underperformed the Canadian Market which returned -4.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PBL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PBL volatility
PBL Average Weekly Movement	7.9%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement	5.8%
Market Average Movement	10.0%
10% most volatile stocks in CA Market	17.3%
10% least volatile stocks in CA Market	4.4%

Stable Share Price: PBL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Canadian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PBL's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1907	2,117	John Pollard	https://www.Pollardbanknote.com

Pollard Banknote Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of gaming products and services for the lottery and charitable gaming industries worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Lotteries and Charitable Gaming, and eGaming Systems. It designs, manufactures, and distributes instant tickets, as well as offers related services.

Pollard Banknote Fundamentals Summary

How do Pollard Banknote's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PBL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CA$596.23m
Earnings (TTM)	CA$18.66m
Revenue (TTM)	CA$460.67m

31.9x

P/E Ratio

1.3x

P/S Ratio

Is PBL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PBL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CA$460.67m
Cost of Revenue	CA$372.40m
Gross Profit	CA$88.27m
Other Expenses	CA$69.61m
Earnings	CA$18.66m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.69
Gross Margin	19.16%
Net Profit Margin	4.05%
Debt/Equity Ratio	52.7%

How did PBL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.7%

Current Dividend Yield

23%

Payout Ratio

Does PBL pay a reliable dividends?

See PBL dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy PBL by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Pollard Banknote dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jun 29 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jul 15 2022
Days until Ex dividend	3 days
Days until Dividend pay date	19 days

Does PBL pay a reliable dividends?

See PBL dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PBL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PBL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PBL. This is calculated by dividing PBL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PBL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CA$596.23m

PBL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.8x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PBL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

PBL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for PBL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.2x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PBL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x) compared to the peer average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PBL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Hospitality Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PBL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x) compared to the Canadian Hospitality industry average (15.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PBL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PBL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	31.9x
Fair PE Ratio	25.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PBL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PBL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PBL (CA$22.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$26.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PBL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PBL is good value based on its PEG Ratio (1x)

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Future Growth

How is Pollard Banknote forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

32.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PBL's forecast earnings growth (32.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: PBL's earnings (32.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PBL's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PBL's revenue (7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market (7.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PBL's revenue (7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if PBL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Pollard Banknote performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

14.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PBL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PBL's current net profit margins (4.1%) are lower than last year (9.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PBL's earnings have grown by 14.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PBL's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: PBL had negative earnings growth (-55.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Hospitality industry average (52.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: PBL's Return on Equity (8.6%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Pollard Banknote's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PBL's short term assets (CA$159.1M) exceed its short term liabilities (CA$93.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: PBL's short term assets (CA$159.1M) exceed its long term liabilities (CA$152.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PBL's net debt to equity ratio (47.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PBL's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 132.5% to 52.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PBL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (48.7%).

Interest Coverage: PBL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Pollard Banknote current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.72%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PBL's dividend (0.72%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (2.03%).

High Dividend: PBL's dividend (0.72%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (5.33%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PBL is not paying a notable dividend for the Canadian market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: PBL is not paying a notable dividend for the Canadian market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: PBL is not paying a notable dividend for the Canadian market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: PBL is not paying a notable dividend for the Canadian market.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

11.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

John Pollard (59 yo)

25.42yrs

Tenure

CA$369,276

Compensation

Mr. John S. Pollard, B.Comm., CA, has been the Co-Chief Executive Officer at Pollard Banknote Limited since 1997, which acts as general Partner of Pollard Banknote Income Fund. Mr. Pollard joined Pollard B...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: John's total compensation ($USD285.88K) is below average for companies of similar size in the Canadian market ($USD1.24M).

Compensation vs Earnings: John's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PBL's management team is seasoned and experienced (11.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PBL's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 17.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31