MTY Food Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of MTY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MTY (CA$46.33) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$73.36)

Is MTY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MTY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MTY (CA$46.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$73.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MTY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MTY?

Key metric: As MTY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MTY. This is calculated by dividing MTY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MTY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	11.4x
Earnings	CA$95.91m
Market Cap	CA$1.09b

MTY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.1x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MTY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MTY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	22.4x
AW A & W Food Services of Canada	25.9x	n/a	CA$893.4m
BPF.UN Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund	12.2x	4.9%	CA$429.2m
PZA Pizza Pizza Royalty	14x	n/a	CA$437.0m
KEG.UN Keg Royalties Income Fund	37.6x	n/a	CA$254.4m
MTY MTY Food Group	11.4x	n/a	CA$1.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MTY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the peer average (22.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MTY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Hospitality Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MTY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the North American Hospitality industry average (22.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MTY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MTY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	11.4x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MTY's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MTY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CA$46.33	CA$56.75 +22.5%	9.5%	CA$65.00	CA$50.00	n/a	4
Nov ’25	CA$45.42	CA$56.75 +24.9%	9.5%	CA$65.00	CA$50.00	n/a	4
Oct ’25	CA$46.18	CA$55.60 +20.4%	8.8%	CA$65.00	CA$51.00	n/a	5
Sep ’25	CA$43.03	CA$55.40 +28.7%	9.0%	CA$65.00	CA$51.00	n/a	5
Aug ’25	CA$45.09	CA$55.40 +22.9%	9.0%	CA$65.00	CA$51.00	n/a	5
Jul ’25	CA$44.94	CA$54.17 +20.5%	9.6%	CA$65.00	CA$49.00	n/a	6
Jun ’25	CA$44.00	CA$55.00 +25.0%	9.4%	CA$65.00	CA$49.00	n/a	6
May ’25	CA$48.49	CA$54.29 +12.0%	9.4%	CA$65.00	CA$49.00	n/a	7
Apr ’25	CA$50.37	CA$61.00 +21.1%	9.9%	CA$75.00	CA$55.00	n/a	7
Mar ’25	CA$50.58	CA$61.29 +21.2%	9.7%	CA$75.00	CA$55.00	n/a	7
Feb ’25	CA$58.00	CA$68.57 +18.2%	8.1%	CA$80.00	CA$62.00	n/a	7
Jan ’25	CA$56.51	CA$69.00 +22.1%	8.6%	CA$80.00	CA$62.00	n/a	6
Dec ’24	CA$52.99	CA$69.00 +30.2%	8.6%	CA$80.00	CA$62.00	n/a	6
Nov ’24	CA$52.62	CA$69.00 +31.1%	8.6%	CA$80.00	CA$62.00	CA$45.42	6
Oct ’24	CA$58.02	CA$72.79 +25.4%	6.7%	CA$84.00	CA$69.50	CA$46.18	7
Sep ’24	CA$66.72	CA$72.79 +9.1%	6.7%	CA$84.00	CA$69.50	CA$43.03	7
Aug ’24	CA$66.56	CA$72.79 +9.4%	6.7%	CA$84.00	CA$69.50	CA$45.09	7
Jul ’24	CA$60.59	CA$70.36 +16.1%	8.1%	CA$84.00	CA$66.00	CA$44.94	7
Jun ’24	CA$57.80	CA$71.07 +23.0%	8.1%	CA$84.00	CA$66.00	CA$44.00	7
May ’24	CA$58.14	CA$71.07 +22.2%	8.1%	CA$84.00	CA$66.00	CA$48.49	7
Apr ’24	CA$60.74	CA$72.14 +18.8%	8.1%	CA$84.00	CA$65.00	CA$50.37	7
Mar ’24	CA$66.84	CA$72.29 +8.1%	8.1%	CA$84.00	CA$65.00	CA$50.58	7
Feb ’24	CA$69.31	CA$67.29 -2.9%	9.0%	CA$80.00	CA$59.00	CA$58.00	7
Jan ’24	CA$57.07	CA$67.00 +17.4%	9.1%	CA$80.00	CA$59.00	CA$56.51	7
Dec ’23	CA$61.70	CA$67.00 +8.6%	9.1%	CA$80.00	CA$59.00	CA$52.99	7
Nov ’23	CA$54.46	CA$66.71 +22.5%	8.5%	CA$78.00	CA$59.00	CA$52.62	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.