Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that The North West Company Inc. (TSE:NWC) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for North West
How Much Debt Does North West Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of April 2022, North West had CA$282.6m of debt, up from CA$268.3m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CA$58.5m in cash, and so its net debt is CA$224.0m.
How Strong Is North West's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that North West had liabilities of CA$222.6m due within 12 months and liabilities of CA$421.6m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$58.5m as well as receivables valued at CA$93.7m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CA$491.9m.
This deficit isn't so bad because North West is worth CA$1.53b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
North West's net debt is only 0.83 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 17.4 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. But the other side of the story is that North West saw its EBIT decline by 6.4% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine North West's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, North West recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 82% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
Our View
The good news is that North West's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its EBIT growth rate. All these things considered, it appears that North West can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. Of course, we wouldn't say no to the extra confidence that we'd gain if we knew that North West insiders have been buying shares: if you're on the same wavelength, you can find out if insiders are buying by clicking this link.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:NWC
North West
Through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail of food and everyday products and services to rural communities and urban neighborhood markets in northern Canada, rural Alaska, the South Pacific, and the Caribbean.
Flawless balance sheet established dividend payer.