Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

TSX:ATD Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$76.2b

Alimentation Couche-Tard Valuation

Is ATD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ATD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ATD (CA$80.11) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$120.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATD?

Key metric: As ATD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ATD. This is calculated by dividing ATD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ATD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.6x
EarningsUS$2.58b
Market CapUS$53.22b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ATD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ATD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.2x
L Loblaw Companies
26x-0.9%CA$58.8b
WN George Weston
48.7x6.8%CA$30.5b
MRU Metro
22.3x3.7%CA$20.7b
EMP.A Empire
15.9xn/aCA$10.6b
ATD Alimentation Couche-Tard
20.8x11.6%CA$76.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the peer average (37.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ATD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Consumer Retailing Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ATD 20.6xIndustry Avg. 22.7xNo. of Companies6PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the North American Consumer Retailing industry average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.6x
Fair PE Ratio31.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ATD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$80.11
CA$90.42
+12.9%
4.5%CA$97.64CA$81.63n/a14
Dec ’25CA$81.91
CA$88.81
+8.4%
5.1%CA$99.33CA$79.85n/a14
Nov ’25CA$73.04
CA$89.72
+22.8%
4.6%CA$98.73CA$82.16n/a15
Oct ’25CA$74.20
CA$87.80
+18.3%
4.5%CA$95.82CA$79.73n/a15
Sep ’25CA$76.93
CA$87.62
+13.9%
4.9%CA$95.66CA$79.89n/a14
Aug ’25CA$82.60
CA$88.03
+6.6%
3.9%CA$96.04CA$80.92n/a16
Jul ’25CA$76.77
CA$85.71
+11.6%
7.3%CA$92.91CA$64.05n/a16
Jun ’25CA$79.55
CA$85.56
+7.6%
7.6%CA$92.61CA$63.79n/a15
May ’25CA$75.76
CA$86.68
+14.4%
7.4%CA$94.54CA$64.45n/a16
Apr ’25CA$75.64
CA$85.79
+13.4%
7.5%CA$94.38CA$63.60n/a16
Mar ’25CA$84.02
CA$85.15
+1.3%
7.8%CA$94.48CA$63.54n/a16
Feb ’25CA$80.29
CA$84.01
+4.6%
7.7%CA$92.53CA$62.72n/a16
Jan ’25CA$78.03
CA$83.21
+6.6%
7.5%CA$92.32CA$62.58n/a16
Dec ’24CA$76.93
CA$85.59
+11.3%
3.9%CA$93.70CA$79.97CA$81.9115
Nov ’24CA$76.39
CA$84.57
+10.7%
4.5%CA$95.09CA$79.27CA$73.0415
Oct ’24CA$68.98
CA$78.94
+14.4%
3.5%CA$85.82CA$72.13CA$74.2015
Sep ’24CA$72.39
CA$78.32
+8.2%
4.3%CA$86.42CA$73.84CA$76.9316
Aug ’24CA$66.77
CA$77.35
+15.8%
5.0%CA$87.31CA$72.51CA$82.6016
Jul ’24CA$67.93
CA$74.98
+10.4%
6.5%CA$87.04CA$65.01CA$76.7716
Jun ’24CA$66.63
CA$71.22
+6.9%
5.8%CA$84.31CA$63.92CA$79.5516
May ’24CA$67.27
CA$71.65
+6.5%
5.9%CA$84.91CA$64.37CA$75.7616
Apr ’24CA$67.95
CA$72.51
+6.7%
5.6%CA$84.88CA$65.27CA$75.6416
Mar ’24CA$63.17
CA$68.79
+8.9%
7.7%CA$80.70CA$53.95CA$84.0216
Feb ’24CA$60.00
CA$68.26
+13.8%
7.6%CA$79.96CA$53.58CA$80.2916
Jan ’24CA$59.50
CA$69.49
+16.8%
7.7%CA$81.48CA$54.60CA$78.0316
Dec ’23CA$61.71
CA$69.26
+12.2%
7.6%CA$80.66CA$54.05CA$76.9315

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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