We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Valuation

Is ATD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

[object Object] Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ATD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.8x
PEG Ratio3.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ATD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ATD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.8x
L Loblaw Companies
18.6x-3.3%CA$39.5b
WN George Weston
10.5x-7.3%CA$24.3b
MRU Metro
21.6x4.9%CA$18.3b
EMP.A Empire
12.6xn/aCA$9.4b
ATD Alimentation Couche-Tard
15.8x5.1%CA$62.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the peer average (15.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ATD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Consumer Retailing Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.3%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the North American Consumer Retailing industry average (18.6x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.8x
Fair PE Ratio21.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ATD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ATD (CA$61.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$92.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ATD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$61.50
CA$68.97
+12.1%
7.6%CA$80.33CA$53.84n/a15
Nov ’23CA$61.84
CA$69.45
+12.3%
7.6%CA$79.00CA$56.26n/a15
Oct ’23CA$55.61
CA$67.26
+20.9%
8.1%CA$79.21CA$55.15n/a15
Sep ’23CA$58.77
CA$67.07
+14.1%
8.5%CA$79.64CA$55.00n/a15
Aug ’23CA$57.21
CA$61.74
+7.9%
8.4%CA$76.74CA$53.85n/a15
Jul ’23CA$50.21
CA$61.33
+22.1%
9.5%CA$77.13CA$50.08n/a16

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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