Waste Connections, Inc.

TSX:WCN Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$69.9b

Waste Connections Valuation

Is WCN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WCN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CA$246.41
Fair Value
10.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: WCN (CA$271.35) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$246.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WCN is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WCN?

Key metric: As WCN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for WCN. This is calculated by dividing WCN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is WCN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio52.1x
EarningsUS$940.33m
Market CapUS$48.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WCN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for WCN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average45.2x
TRI Thomson Reuters
36.7x-1.4%CA$115.3b
EFN Element Fleet Management
21.8x14.4%CA$11.3b
BYD Boyd Group Services
87x66.5%CA$5.1b
RSG Republic Services
35.5x6.8%US$69.6b
WCN Waste Connections
52.1x14.2%CA$48.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WCN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.1x) compared to the peer average (45.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WCN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Commercial Services Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WCN 52.1xIndustry Avg. 30.8xNo. of Companies11PE020406080100+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WCN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.1x) compared to the North American Commercial Services industry average (31.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WCN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WCN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio52.1x
Fair PE Ratio36.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WCN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WCN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$271.35
CA$281.04
+3.6%
9.0%CA$305.61CA$211.36n/a19
Feb ’26CA$267.05
CA$282.85
+5.9%
9.0%CA$307.58CA$212.72n/a19
Jan ’26CA$246.60
CA$284.66
+15.4%
9.7%CA$323.82CA$207.24n/a19
Dec ’25CA$271.42
CA$270.18
-0.5%
9.2%CA$311.33CA$199.25n/a19
Nov ’25CA$247.15
CA$270.41
+9.4%
9.1%CA$312.52CA$200.01n/a20
Oct ’25CA$239.94
CA$266.19
+10.9%
10.7%CA$312.15CA$187.29n/a19
Sep ’25CA$251.32
CA$266.19
+5.9%
10.7%CA$312.15CA$187.29n/a19
Aug ’25CA$247.95
CA$266.19
+7.4%
10.7%CA$312.15CA$187.29n/a19
Jul ’25CA$240.03
CA$248.43
+3.5%
9.9%CA$296.07CA$184.19n/a19
Jun ’25CA$223.82
CA$248.43
+11.0%
9.9%CA$296.07CA$184.19n/a19
May ’25CA$223.02
CA$249.96
+12.1%
9.9%CA$298.75CA$185.86n/a19
Apr ’25CA$231.25
CA$242.25
+4.8%
10.0%CA$294.50CA$183.21n/a18
Mar ’25CA$224.35
CA$239.22
+6.6%
8.5%CA$264.65CA$183.22n/a19
Feb ’25CA$212.00
CA$217.41
+2.6%
7.3%CA$238.48CA$172.46CA$267.0518
Jan ’25CA$197.86
CA$210.81
+6.5%
8.2%CA$233.37CA$165.36CA$246.6018
Dec ’24CA$188.37
CA$209.49
+11.2%
8.2%CA$236.19CA$163.31CA$271.4218
Nov ’24CA$179.88
CA$214.18
+19.1%
8.0%CA$237.14CA$167.80CA$247.1518
Oct ’24CA$182.37
CA$211.37
+15.9%
9.3%CA$235.52CA$158.81CA$239.9418
Sep ’24CA$189.41
CA$209.44
+10.6%
9.2%CA$234.23CA$157.94CA$251.3219
Aug ’24CA$189.86
CA$206.56
+8.8%
6.9%CA$225.90CA$159.46CA$247.9518
Jul ’24CA$189.33
CA$206.74
+9.2%
6.9%CA$226.99CA$160.23CA$240.0318
Jun ’24CA$184.93
CA$209.75
+13.4%
7.1%CA$230.14CA$162.45CA$223.8217
May ’24CA$188.54
CA$209.07
+10.9%
7.1%CA$230.30CA$162.56CA$223.0218
Apr ’24CA$188.10
CA$204.30
+8.6%
10.2%CA$229.92CA$144.71CA$231.2517
Mar ’24CA$181.52
CA$203.73
+12.2%
10.5%CA$230.13CA$144.85CA$224.3516
Feb ’24CA$176.77
CA$198.50
+12.3%
11.5%CA$225.90CA$130.23CA$212.0016
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
CA$281.15
Fair Value
3.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/11 09:16
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/11 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Waste Connections, Inc. is covered by 42 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harriet LiAccountability Research Corporation
Christopher MurrayATB Capital Markets
Jonathan WindhamBarclays