Stock Analysis

Investors in Element Fleet Management (TSE:EFN) have seen impressive returns of 249% over the past five years

TSX:EFN
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When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. For example, the Element Fleet Management Corp. (TSE:EFN) share price has soared 215% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. It's also good to see the share price up 19% over the last quarter. But this move may well have been assisted by the reasonably buoyant market (up 8.2% in 90 days).

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Element Fleet Management

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last half decade, Element Fleet Management became profitable. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the Element Fleet Management share price is up 78% in the last three years. In the same period, EPS is up 116% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 21% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. So you might conclude the market is a little more cautious about the stock, these days.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSX:EFN Earnings Per Share Growth January 22nd 2024

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Element Fleet Management's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Element Fleet Management's TSR for the last 5 years was 249%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Element Fleet Management shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 18% over one year. And that does include the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 28% a year, is even better. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Element Fleet Management you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Element Fleet Management is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.