Stock Analysis

Even after rising 12% this past week, Westport Fuel Systems (TSE:WPRT) shareholders are still down 76% over the past five years

TSX:WPRT
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Westport Fuel Systems Inc. (TSE:WPRT) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 12% in the last week. But will that heal all the wounds inflicted over 5 years of declines? Unlikely. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 76% in that time. It's true that the recent bounce could signal the company is turning over a new leaf, but we are not so sure. The important question is if the business itself justifies a higher share price in the long term.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last five years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

View our latest analysis for Westport Fuel Systems

Westport Fuel Systems wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

In the last half decade, Westport Fuel Systems saw its revenue increase by 3.5% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. It's not so sure that share price crash of 12% per year is completely deserved, but the market is doubtless disappointed. While we're definitely wary of the stock, after that kind of performance, it could be an over-reaction. We'd recommend focussing any further research on the likelihood of profitability in the foreseeable future, given the muted revenue growth.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:WPRT Earnings and Revenue Growth November 6th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Westport Fuel Systems will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

Westport Fuel Systems shareholders are down 33% for the year, but the market itself is up 3.4%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Westport Fuel Systems .

Westport Fuel Systems is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.