Stock Analysis

Exco Technologies' (TSE:XTC) 20% return outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same one-year period

TSX:XTC
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These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. For example, the Exco Technologies Limited (TSE:XTC) share price is up 14% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market decline of around 0.5% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! Having said that, the longer term returns aren't so impressive, with stock gaining just 1.9% in three years.

Since it's been a strong week for Exco Technologies shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Exco Technologies

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Exco Technologies was able to grow EPS by 11% in the last twelve months. The share price gain of 14% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSX:XTC Earnings Per Share Growth October 21st 2023

We know that Exco Technologies has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Exco Technologies, it has a TSR of 20% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Exco Technologies shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 20% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 3% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Exco Technologies (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Exco Technologies is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About TSX:XTC

Exco Technologies

Exco Technologies Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells dies, molds, components and assemblies, and consumable equipment for the die-cast, extrusion, and automotive industries.

Excellent balance sheet with proven track record and pays a dividend.

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