Serena Energia S.A.

BOVESPA:SRNA3 Stock Report

Market Cap: R$7.8b

Serena Energia Valuation

Is SRNA3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SRNA3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

R$17.39
Fair Value
28.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: SRNA3 (R$12.47) is trading below our estimate of fair value (R$17.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SRNA3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SRNA3?

Key metric: As SRNA3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SRNA3. This is calculated by dividing SRNA3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SRNA3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio107.2x
EarningsR$72.41m
Market CapR$7.76b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SRNA3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SRNA3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.8x
EMAE4 Empresa Metropolitana de Águas e Energia
18.8xn/aR$3.0b
EGIE3 Engie Brasil Energia
10.9x6.86%R$32.8b
CEEB3 Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia - COELBA
4.4xn/aR$9.4b
EKTR4 Elektro Redes
8.8xn/aR$8.3b
SRNA3 Serena Energia
107.2x48.57%R$7.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SRNA3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (107.2x) compared to the peer average (10.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SRNA3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Renewable Energy Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SRNA3 107.2xIndustry Avg. 16.7xNo. of Companies47PE01632486480+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SRNA3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (107.2x) compared to the Global Renewable Energy industry average (16.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SRNA3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SRNA3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio107.2x
Fair PE Ratio29.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SRNA3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (107.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SRNA3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR$12.47
R$12.08
-3.14%
12.13%R$15.13R$10.50n/a6
Oct ’26R$12.34
R$12.08
-2.12%
12.13%R$15.13R$10.50n/a6
Sep ’26R$12.10
R$12.08
-0.18%
12.13%R$15.13R$10.50n/a6
Aug ’26R$11.88
R$12.14
+2.18%
11.24%R$15.13R$10.50n/a7
Jul ’26R$11.66
R$12.13
+4.06%
11.29%R$15.13R$10.50n/a7
Jun ’26R$11.46
R$12.13
+5.87%
11.29%R$15.13R$10.50n/a7
May ’26R$9.80
R$12.15
+23.93%
11.21%R$15.10R$10.50n/a8
Apr ’26R$7.73
R$12.33
+59.54%
11.20%R$14.60R$10.50n/a8
Mar ’26R$8.18
R$12.33
+50.69%
11.12%R$14.55R$10.50n/a8
Feb ’26R$6.52
R$13.18
+102.17%
10.23%R$15.00R$10.50n/a8
Jan ’26R$5.50
R$13.37
+143.07%
7.70%R$15.00R$12.00n/a8
Dec ’25R$6.31
R$13.49
+113.85%
6.74%R$15.00R$12.00n/a8
Nov ’25R$7.69
R$13.29
+72.77%
5.79%R$14.60R$12.00n/a7
Oct ’25R$8.27
R$17.99
+117.57%
63.68%R$46.00R$12.00R$12.347
Sep ’25R$8.10
R$17.99
+122.13%
63.68%R$46.00R$12.00R$12.107
Aug ’25R$8.60
R$17.54
+104.00%
61.44%R$46.00R$12.00R$11.888
Jul ’25R$8.80
R$13.48
+53.17%
5.67%R$14.60R$12.00R$11.667
Jun ’25R$8.69
R$13.26
+52.64%
7.78%R$14.60R$11.50R$11.467
May ’25R$8.22
R$13.09
+59.22%
10.77%R$15.00R$11.50R$9.804
Apr ’25R$9.52
R$12.75
+33.93%
13.95%R$15.00R$10.00R$7.735
Mar ’25R$8.89
R$12.79
+43.89%
12.71%R$15.00R$10.00R$8.186
Feb ’25R$9.77
R$12.64
+29.41%
12.87%R$15.00R$10.00R$6.526
Jan ’25R$10.21
R$12.73
+24.65%
14.51%R$16.00R$10.00R$5.506
Dec ’24R$9.62
R$13.27
+37.96%
11.45%R$16.00R$11.50R$6.315
Nov ’24R$8.13
R$13.89
+70.89%
11.04%R$16.00R$12.36R$7.696
Oct ’24R$9.82
R$13.73
+39.78%
9.75%R$16.00R$12.36R$8.276
R$12.08
Fair Value
3.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/17 01:24
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/16 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Serena Energia S.A. is covered by 11 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Gustavo FariaBofA Global Research
Carlos Palhares SequeiraBTG Pactual
João PimentelCitigroup Inc