Stock Analysis

Engie Brasil Energia's (BVMF:EGIE3) five-year earnings growth trails the 11% YoY shareholder returns

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BOVESPA:EGIE3

When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the Engie Brasil Energia S.A. (BVMF:EGIE3) share price is up 23% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 12% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 11% , including dividends .

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Engie Brasil Energia

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Engie Brasil Energia achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 8.6% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 4% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 10.30.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

BOVESPA:EGIE3 Earnings Per Share Growth November 6th 2023

We know that Engie Brasil Energia has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Engie Brasil Energia's TSR for the last 5 years was 66%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Engie Brasil Energia shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 11% per year, is even more impressive. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Engie Brasil Energia is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Brazilian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Engie Brasil Energia might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.