Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies CPFL Energia S.A. (BVMF:CPFE3) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for CPFL Energia
What Is CPFL Energia's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2022 CPFL Energia had debt of R$26.6b, up from R$22.1b in one year. However, it also had R$4.31b in cash, and so its net debt is R$22.3b.
How Strong Is CPFL Energia's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that CPFL Energia had liabilities of R$15.2b due within a year, and liabilities of R$35.1b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had R$4.31b in cash and R$7.51b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by R$38.4b.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's R$37.5b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
We'd say that CPFL Energia's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 2.1), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 10.2 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Importantly, CPFL Energia grew its EBIT by 34% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine CPFL Energia's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, CPFL Energia recorded free cash flow of 42% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
On our analysis CPFL Energia's EBIT growth rate should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to handle its total liabilities. We would also note that Electric Utilities industry companies like CPFL Energia commonly do use debt without problems. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about CPFL Energia's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for CPFL Energia you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
New: AI Stock Screener & Alerts
Our new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.
• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)
• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying
• High growth Tech and AI Companies
Or build your own from over 50 metrics.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BOVESPA:CPFE3
CPFL Energia
Engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity to residential, industrial, and commercial customers in Brazil.
Very undervalued with adequate balance sheet.