Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, MRS Logística S.A. (BVMF:MRSA3B) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for MRS Logística
What Is MRS Logística's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2024 MRS Logística had R$6.14b of debt, an increase on R$4.55b, over one year. However, it does have R$2.62b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about R$3.51b.
How Strong Is MRS Logística's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that MRS Logística had liabilities of R$2.55b due within 12 months and liabilities of R$7.90b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had R$2.62b in cash and R$556.2m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling R$7.27b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of R$9.87b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
MRS Logística has net debt of just 0.96 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 7.5 times the interest expense over the last year. In addition to that, we're happy to report that MRS Logística has boosted its EBIT by 32%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is MRS Logística's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, MRS Logística's free cash flow amounted to 25% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
On our analysis MRS Logística's EBIT growth rate should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its level of total liabilities makes us a little nervous about its debt. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about MRS Logística's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for MRS Logística (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BOVESPA:MRSA3B
MRS Logística
A logistics operator that manages a railway network in Brazil.
Solid track record and fair value.