Track & Field Co S.A.

BOVESPA:TFCO4 Stock Report

Market Cap: R$1.5b

Track & Field Co Valuation

Is TFCO4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TFCO4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TFCO4 (R$9.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value (R$10.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TFCO4 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TFCO4?

Key metric: As TFCO4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TFCO4. This is calculated by dividing TFCO4's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TFCO4's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.9x
EarningsR$112.48m
Market CapR$1.45b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TFCO4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TFCO4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.8x
CEAB3 C&A Modas
10.4x7.6%R$3.8b
LREN3 Lojas Renner
12.5x15.5%R$15.4b
SBFG3 Grupo SBF
6.2x6.4%R$3.3b
LJQQ3 Lojas Quero-Quero
10.1x26.5%R$548.2m
TFCO4 Track & Field Co
12.9x19.1%R$1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TFCO4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x) compared to the peer average (9.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TFCO4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Specialty Retail Industry?

16 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TFCO4 12.9xIndustry Avg. 16.4xNo. of Companies81PE01224364860+
16 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TFCO4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x) compared to the Global Specialty Retail industry average (16.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TFCO4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TFCO4 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.9x
Fair PE Ratio9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TFCO4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TFCO4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR$9.45
R$15.50
+64.0%
3.2%R$16.00R$15.00n/a4
Nov ’25R$9.80
R$15.50
+58.2%
3.2%R$16.00R$15.00n/a4
Oct ’25R$10.68
R$15.50
+45.1%
3.2%R$16.00R$15.00n/a4
Sep ’25R$11.93
R$16.25
+36.2%
6.7%R$18.00R$15.00n/a4
Aug ’25R$11.45
R$16.75
+46.3%
5.0%R$18.00R$16.00n/a4
Jul ’25R$10.68
R$17.67
+65.4%
2.7%R$18.00R$17.00n/a3
Jun ’25R$11.10
R$17.67
+59.2%
2.7%R$18.00R$17.00n/a3
May ’25R$11.25
R$17.67
+57.0%
2.7%R$18.00R$17.00n/a3
Apr ’25R$11.82
R$16.67
+41.0%
7.5%R$18.00R$15.00n/a3
Mar ’25R$13.13
R$17.00
+29.5%
7.2%R$18.00R$15.00n/a4
Feb ’25R$13.69
R$17.00
+24.2%
7.2%R$18.00R$15.00n/a4
Jan ’25R$15.03
R$16.25
+8.1%
8.0%R$18.00R$15.00n/a4
Dec ’24R$14.00
R$15.36
+9.7%
13.8%R$18.00R$11.80n/a5
Nov ’24R$13.37
R$14.96
+11.9%
13.1%R$18.00R$11.80R$9.805
Oct ’24R$13.22
R$15.16
+14.7%
13.2%R$18.00R$11.80R$10.685
Sep ’24R$13.79
R$14.96
+8.5%
13.8%R$18.00R$11.80R$11.935
Aug ’24R$13.51
R$14.16
+4.8%
8.8%R$15.00R$11.80R$11.455
Jul ’24R$12.60
R$14.47
+14.8%
9.2%R$16.00R$11.80R$10.686
Jun ’24R$11.05
R$14.47
+30.9%
9.2%R$16.00R$11.80R$11.106
May ’24R$10.28
R$14.51
+41.2%
8.5%R$16.00R$11.80R$11.257
Apr ’24R$10.76
R$14.37
+33.6%
7.7%R$15.00R$11.80R$11.827
Mar ’24R$10.20
R$14.51
+42.3%
8.5%R$16.00R$11.80R$13.137
Feb ’24R$11.40
R$14.97
+31.3%
3.9%R$16.00R$14.00R$13.696
Jan ’24R$10.50
R$15.30
+45.7%
6.3%R$17.00R$14.00R$15.036
Dec ’23R$11.21
R$15.63
+39.5%
5.0%R$17.00R$14.80R$14.006
Nov ’23R$12.70
R$15.63
+23.1%
5.0%R$17.00R$14.80R$13.376

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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