Mobly S.A. (BVMF:MBLY3) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

It's been a pretty great week for Mobly S.A. (BVMF:MBLY3) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to R$6.07 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenues of R$721m came in 2.9% below estimates, but statutory losses were slightly better than expected, at R$0.67 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Mobly

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Mobly are now predicting revenues of R$845.0m in 2022. If met, this would reflect a notable 17% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 17% from last year to R$0.66. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of R$950.9m and R$0.64 per share in losses. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The consensus price target fell 27% to R$7.30, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Mobly, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$7.50 and the most bearish at R$7.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Mobly's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 17% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 26% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Mobly.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Mobly. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mobly analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Mobly (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.