Results: Lojas Renner S.A. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Lojas Renner S.A. (BVMF:LREN3), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The result was positive overall - although revenues of R$3.6b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Lojas Renner surprised by delivering a statutory profit of R$0.28 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lojas Renner's eleven analysts is for revenues of R$17.5b in 2026. This would reflect a notable 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 16% to R$1.63. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$17.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$1.65 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Lojas Renner

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of R$19.59, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Lojas Renner, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$24.00 and the most bearish at R$17.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Lojas Renner's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Lojas Renner's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Lojas Renner's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$19.59, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Lojas Renner. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Lojas Renner analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Lojas Renner that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.