Stock Analysis

Is JHSF Participações (BVMF:JHSF3) A Risky Investment?

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BOVESPA:JHSF3
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Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, JHSF Participações S.A. (BVMF:JHSF3) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for JHSF Participações

How Much Debt Does JHSF Participações Carry?

As you can see below, JHSF Participações had R$1.71b of debt at September 2023, down from R$2.75b a year prior. On the flip side, it has R$165.0m in cash leading to net debt of about R$1.55b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
BOVESPA:JHSF3 Debt to Equity History December 8th 2023

How Healthy Is JHSF Participações' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that JHSF Participações had liabilities of R$745.3m due within a year, and liabilities of R$1.67b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of R$165.0m as well as receivables valued at R$28.0k due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by R$2.25b.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of R$3.10b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

JHSF Participações has net debt worth 1.9 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.3 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Unfortunately, JHSF Participações's EBIT flopped 16% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if JHSF Participações can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, JHSF Participações saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

To be frank both JHSF Participações's EBIT growth rate and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least its net debt to EBITDA is not so bad. We're quite clear that we consider JHSF Participações to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that JHSF Participações is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether JHSF Participações is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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