Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Allos S.A. (BVMF:ALOS3) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Allos
How Much Debt Does Allos Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Allos had debt of R$5.58b at the end of March 2024, a reduction from R$6.42b over a year. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.
How Healthy Is Allos' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Allos had liabilities of R$2.83b due within a year, and liabilities of R$9.44b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of R$36.8m as well as receivables valued at R$1.22b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by R$11.0b.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of R$11.9b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Allos' use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Allos's debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 2.7 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Looking on the bright side, Allos boosted its EBIT by a silky 76% in the last year. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Allos can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Allos actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
Our View
Both Allos's ability to to convert EBIT to free cash flow and its EBIT growth rate gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. But truth be told its interest cover had us nibbling our nails. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Allos is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Allos you should know about.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BOVESPA:ALOS3
Allos
Provides planning, development, administration, and sales services to third-party shopping centers in Brazil.
Questionable track record unattractive dividend payer.