Gerdau S.A.

BOVESPA:GGBR4 Stock Report

Market Cap: R$43.3b

Gerdau Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Gerdau is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 31.4% and 4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 27.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10% in 3 years.

Key information

31.4%

Earnings growth rate

27.19%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth21.5%
Revenue growth rate4.0%
Future return on equity10.05%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated07 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 13

GGBR4: Share Repurchases And Higher Margin Assumptions Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their price target for Gerdau higher to R$29.95 from R$29.52, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, following a series of recent upgrades and target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has leaned more constructive on Gerdau, with several bullish analysts adjusting their views and price targets in quick succession.
Narrative Update • Apr 28

GGBR4: Share Buybacks And Higher P/E Framework Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have inched their average price target on Gerdau higher to about R$24.64 from roughly R$24.57, citing updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E. These changes reflect the latest rounds of target increases and rating changes across the Street.
Narrative Update • Apr 14

GGBR4: Share Buybacks And Refined Margin Assumptions Will Support Future Upside

Gerdau's updated R$29.52 analyst price target edges slightly below the prior R$29.66, with analysts citing refined assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E following a mix of recent upgrades and downgrades across major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Gerdau shows a mix of upgrades, downgrades and price target tweaks, with several bullish analysts focusing on refined expectations for execution and earnings power rather than wholesale changes to the underlying story.
Narrative Update • Mar 31

GGBR4: Buyback Plan And Firmer Margins Will Likely Unlock Upside

Analysts raised the fair value estimate for Gerdau to R$21.00 from R$20.00, citing updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E that reflect the latest mix of upgrades and downgrades in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Gerdau presents a mixed picture, with some firms turning more constructive while others are taking a step back and reassessing risk.
Narrative Update • Mar 17

GGBR4: Share Buybacks Will Shape More Optimistic Future Earnings Profile

Analysts have trimmed their stance on Gerdau and now see fair value at about R$24.57 per share, a change of roughly R$0.44. This reflects expectations for lower revenue growth, a higher profit margin and a lower future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Mar 03

GGBR4: Share Buybacks And Higher Margins Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have made only a slight upward adjustment to their R$ price target for Gerdau, reflecting more cautious views following recent downgrades that point to tempered expectations, despite updated assumptions for profit margins and future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent research has turned more cautious on Gerdau, with downgrades reflecting a preference to wait for clearer visibility on earnings and valuation.
Narrative Update • Feb 17

GGBR4: Share Buybacks And Higher Future P/E Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts have nudged their price target on Gerdau to R$29.60 from R$27.96, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple, even as some recent research, such as BTG Pactual turning more cautious, reflects a more mixed stance on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight the updated price target of R$29.60 as a sign that they see room for the shares to better reflect their assumptions on revenue, margins and a higher future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Feb 03

GGBR4: Share Buybacks And Refined Earnings Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Outlook

Analysts now set their fair value estimate for Gerdau at US$24.13 per share, up from US$23.08. This reflects updated views on discount rates, long term profit margins and future P/E assumptions, even as some recent research has turned more cautious on the stock.
Narrative Update • Jan 20

GGBR4: Share Cancellations And Rich P/E Will Likely Restrain Returns

Analysts have lifted their price target on Gerdau from US$17.00 to US$20.00, citing revised assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and the future P/E they apply to the shares. What's in the News Between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, Gerdau repurchased 293,000 shares for BRL 4.59 million under its buyback program announced on January 20, 2025, bringing total repurchases under the program to 1,033,500 shares for BRL 16.17 million (company filing).
Narrative Update • Jan 05

GGBR4: Share Cancellations And Dividend Payout Will Support Bullish Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target for Gerdau higher from US$22.61 to about US$23.08, reflecting updated views that factor in slightly adjusted forecasts for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to December 19, 2025, Gerdau repurchased 466,500 shares for BRL 7.3 million, completing the 1,500,000 share buyback program announced on January 20, 2025 for a total of BRL 23.48 million (company filing).
Narrative Update • Dec 14

GGBR4: Share Cancellations And Dividend Policy Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on Gerdau to approximately $27.96 from $28.00, citing a combination of slower expected revenue growth, a slightly higher discount rate, and improved profit margin and future valuation assumptions. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for October 30, 2025, to evaluate the cancellation of 283,900 common shares (GGBR3) and 12,650,000 preferred shares (GGBR4) without reducing capital stock (company filing).
Narrative Update • Nov 25

GGBR4: Upcoming Dividend Payment and Share Buybacks Will Drive Market Optimism

Analysts have raised Gerdau's fair value estimate from $22.19 to $22.61, citing recent adjustments to growth and profitability expectations as key factors in the revised price target. What's in the News The Board of Directors approved the cancellation of 283,900 common shares (GGBR3) and 12,650,000 preferred shares (GGBR4) with no reduction in capital stock (Key Developments).
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New Narrative • Nov 30

Strategic Shifts And Efficiency Enhancements Set The Stage For Growth Amid Global Challenges

Cost reduction efforts and a strategic product mix are set to improve margins and efficiency, enhancing Gerdau's financial performance.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

BOVESPA:GGBR4 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (BRL Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202875,9435,5054,6038,64111
12/31/202773,0715,3974,4957,88613
12/31/202670,2765,3603,9017,84911
3/31/202669,1991,6402,4108,596N/A
12/31/202569,8591,3871,1357,987N/A
9/30/202569,7073,0013807,627N/A
6/30/202569,1023,2693,34610,530N/A
3/31/202568,1923,2724,74211,451N/A
12/31/202467,0274,5665,43511,381N/A
9/30/202464,9204,8286,59612,208N/A
6/30/202464,6055,0633,2968,725N/A
3/31/202466,2546,3394,54210,006N/A
12/31/202368,9167,5025,80211,139N/A
9/30/202372,1658,1313,7459,250N/A
6/30/202376,2519,5605,05610,153N/A
3/31/202380,95411,7075,96010,794N/A
12/31/202282,41211,4266,66911,150N/A
9/30/202286,00313,71313,23817,248N/A
6/30/202286,17116,29612,84016,575N/A
3/31/202282,33315,9689,91913,268N/A
12/31/202178,34515,4949,32512,517N/A
9/30/202170,41013,0474,7517,290N/A
6/30/202161,3158,2395,1167,199N/A
3/31/202150,9304,6005,0476,815N/A
12/31/202043,8152,3664,6036,408N/A
9/30/202039,7281,4171,9463,653N/A
6/30/202037,4379178952,783N/A
3/31/202038,8469711,1183,161N/A
12/31/201939,6441,204N/A1,643N/A
9/30/201941,0101,488N/A3,520N/A
6/30/201943,9151,987N/A1,938N/A
3/31/201945,7962,312N/A1,847N/A
12/31/201846,1592,304N/A2,000N/A
9/30/201845,077536N/A2,573N/A
6/30/201841,717-114N/A2,308N/A
3/31/201838,848-734N/A1,836N/A
12/31/201736,918-359N/A2,076N/A
9/30/201735,720-2,039N/A1,465N/A
6/30/201734,943-2,082N/A2,060N/A
3/31/201736,026-2,084N/A2,624N/A
12/31/201637,652-2,891N/A3,516N/A
9/30/201639,481-2,984N/A3,791N/A
6/30/201642,708-5,018N/A6,409N/A
3/31/201643,218-4,836N/A7,147N/A
12/31/201543,581-4,551N/A7,162N/A
9/30/201543,976-997N/A5,827N/A
6/30/201542,7571,198N/A3,515N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GGBR4's forecast earnings growth (31.4% per year) is above the savings rate (12.4%).

Earnings vs Market: GGBR4's earnings (31.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the BR market (12.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GGBR4's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GGBR4's revenue (4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the BR market (6.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GGBR4's revenue (4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GGBR4's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/16 10:35
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/15 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Gerdau S.A. is covered by 22 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Leonardo CorreaBarclays
Mary Cleia da SilvaBB Banco de Investimento S.A.
Caio RibeiroBofA Global Research