Dexco S.A. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that Dexco S.A. (BVMF:DXCO3) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to R$5.59 in the past week. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit R$8.2b. Statutory earnings fell 9.9% short of analyst forecasts, reaching R$0.21 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Dexco

Following last week's earnings report, Dexco's six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be R$8.23b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$8.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.59 in 2025. So we can see that while the consensus made a small dip in revenue estimates, it no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that the market is now more focused on revenue after the latest result.

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of R$9.19, with Dexco seemingly executing in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Dexco, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$11.00 and the most bearish at R$7.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.003% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Dexco is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear low-light was that the analysts cut their forecast revenue estimates for Dexco next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$9.19, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

At least one of Dexco's six analysts has provided estimates out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Dexco (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.