Stock Analysis

Even after rising 11% this past week, Qualicorp Consultoria e Corretora de Seguros (BVMF:QUAL3) shareholders are still down 89% over the past three years

BOVESPA:QUAL3
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Qualicorp Consultoria e Corretora de Seguros S.A. (BVMF:QUAL3) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 21% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been stomach churning. The share price has sunk like a leaky ship, down 90% in that time. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

While the stock has risen 11% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

View our latest analysis for Qualicorp Consultoria e Corretora de Seguros

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over the three years that the share price declined, Qualicorp Consultoria e Corretora de Seguros' earnings per share (EPS) dropped significantly, falling to a loss. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
BOVESPA:QUAL3 Earnings Per Share Growth December 28th 2023

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Qualicorp Consultoria e Corretora de Seguros had a tough year, with a total loss of 41% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 23%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Qualicorp Consultoria e Corretora de Seguros is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are a bit concerning...

But note: Qualicorp Consultoria e Corretora de Seguros may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Brazilian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Qualicorp Consultoria e Corretora de Seguros might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.