We Think Ambev's (BVMF:ABEV3) Healthy Earnings Might Be Conservative

Ambev S.A. (BVMF:ABEV3) announced a healthy earnings result recently, and the market rewarded it with a strong uplift in the stock price. This reaction by the market reaction is understandable when looking at headline profits and we have found some further encouraging factors.

See our latest analysis for Ambev

A Closer Look At Ambev's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to December 2024, Ambev recorded an accrual ratio of -0.10. That implies it has good cash conversion, and implies that its free cash flow solidly exceeded its profit last year. To wit, it produced free cash flow of R$21b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of R$14.4b. Ambev's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Ambev's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Ambev has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that Ambev's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at 14% per year over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example - Ambev has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Ambev's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.