The Returns On Capital At Grendene (BVMF:GRND3) Don't Inspire Confidence

To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. This reveals that the company isn't compounding shareholder wealth because returns are falling and its net asset base is shrinking. On that note, looking into Grendene (BVMF:GRND3), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for Grendene, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.08 = R$274m ÷ (R$5.0b - R$1.5b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).

So, Grendene has an ROCE of 8.0%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Luxury industry average of 12%.

View our latest analysis for Grendene

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Grendene compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

In terms of Grendene's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. About five years ago, returns on capital were 14%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Grendene becoming one if things continue as they have.

On a side note, Grendene's current liabilities have increased over the last five years to 31% of total assets, effectively distorting the ROCE to some degree. Without this increase, it's likely that ROCE would be even lower than 8.0%. While the ratio isn't currently too high, it's worth keeping an eye on this because if it gets particularly high, the business could then face some new elements of risk.

The Key Takeaway

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Despite the concerning underlying trends, the stock has actually gained 29% over the last five years, so it might be that the investors are expecting the trends to reverse. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

Grendene does have some risks, we noticed 3 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.

While Grendene may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.