Analysts Just Made A Decent Upgrade To Their VGP NV (EBR:VGP) Forecasts

VGP NV (EBR:VGP) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The consensus statutory numbers for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) increased, with their view clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects. The stock price has risen 7.1% to €83.20 over the past week, suggesting investors are becoming more optimistic. Could this big upgrade push the stock even higher?

After the upgrade, the consensus from VGP's four analysts is for revenues of €231m in 2025, which would reflect a disturbing 27% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to soar 23% to €12.99. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €177m and earnings per share (EPS) of €10.84 in 2025. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for VGP

Although the analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of €92.89, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 27% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 45% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 15% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for VGP, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates for this year, expecting improving business conditions. Notably, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, with sales performing well although VGP's revenue growth is expected to trail that of the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So VGP could be a good candidate for more research.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple VGP analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.