Golden Son (DSE:GOLDENSON) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of GOLDENSON when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GOLDENSON (BDT18.4) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (BDT2.5)

GOLDENSON fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	2/6

GOLDENSON Stock Overview

Golden Son Limited manufactures and sells household electronics and electrical goods, twill tapes, hotpots, various types of toys, etc.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (30.5x) is below the Consumer Durables industry average (50.7x)

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 1.49% is not well covered by earnings

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Does not have a meaningful market cap (BDT3B)

Golden Son Competitors

Singer Bangladesh

DSE:SINGERBD

৳15.3b

Bengal Windsor Thermoplastics

DSE:BENGALWTL

৳2.1b

Monno Ceramic Industries

DSE:MONNOCERA

৳3.7b

Shinepukur Ceramics

DSE:SPCERAMICS

৳6.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Golden Son
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	৳18.40
52 Week High	৳23.30
52 Week Low	৳15.70
Beta	0.30
1 Month Change	5.75%
3 Month Change	3.37%
1 Year Change	-8.00%
3 Year Change	142.11%
5 Year Change	1.10%
Change since IPO	163.02%

Shareholder Returns

	GOLDENSON	BD Consumer Durables	BD Market
7D	1.1%	4.8%	5.0%
1Y	-8.0%	-25.1%	-8.9%

Return vs Industry: GOLDENSON exceeded the BD Consumer Durables industry which returned -25.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GOLDENSON matched the BD Market which returned -8.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GOLDENSON's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GOLDENSON volatility
GOLDENSON Average Weekly Movement	4.4%
Consumer Durables Industry Average Movement	4.2%
Market Average Movement	4.8%
10% most volatile stocks in BD Market	6.7%
10% least volatile stocks in BD Market	2.6%

Stable Share Price: GOLDENSON is not significantly more volatile than the rest of BD stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GOLDENSON's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2003	675	Belal Ahmed	https://www.goldensonbd.com

Golden Son Limited manufactures and sells household electronics and electrical goods, twill tapes, hotpots, various types of toys, etc. in Bangladesh. The company provides thermal cookers, oval food warmers, and accessories; screws; lunch boxes, s.s and aluminum cookware, and fry pans; electric fans and fan components; led lights; vehicle chains; cooking pots; and baby toys, as well as plastic products, garment accessories, and solar lightings. It also exports its products.

Golden Son Fundamentals Summary

How do Golden Son's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GOLDENSON fundamental statistics
Market Cap	৳3.16b
Earnings (TTM)	৳103.73m
Revenue (TTM)	৳689.74m

30.5x

P/E Ratio

4.6x

P/S Ratio

Is GOLDENSON overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GOLDENSON income statement (TTM)
Revenue	৳689.74m
Cost of Revenue	৳44.42m
Gross Profit	৳645.32m
Other Expenses	৳541.59m
Earnings	৳103.73m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.60
Gross Margin	93.56%
Net Profit Margin	15.04%
Debt/Equity Ratio	100.1%

How did GOLDENSON perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.5%

Current Dividend Yield

46%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is GOLDENSON undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GOLDENSON?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for GOLDENSON. This is calculated by dividing GOLDENSON's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is GOLDENSON's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	৳3.16b

GOLDENSON key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	9.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.8x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GOLDENSON's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

GOLDENSON PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for GOLDENSON vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	78.3x
SINGERBD Singer Bangladesh	54.4x	38.1%	৳15.3b
BENGALWTL Bengal Windsor Thermoplastics	47x	n/a	৳2.1b
MONNOCERA Monno Ceramic Industries	111.8x	n/a	৳3.7b
SPCERAMICS Shinepukur Ceramics	99.9x	n/a	৳6.6b
GOLDENSON Golden Son	30.5x	n/a	৳3.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GOLDENSON is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.5x) compared to the peer average (78.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GOLDENSON's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Consumer Durables Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GOLDENSON is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.5x) compared to the BD Consumer Durables industry average (50.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GOLDENSON's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GOLDENSON PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	30.5x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GOLDENSON's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GOLDENSON when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GOLDENSON (BDT18.4) is trading above our estimate of fair value (BDT2.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GOLDENSON is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Golden Son forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

13.9%

Forecasted Consumer Durables industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Golden Son has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

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Take a look at our analysis of GOLDENSON’s management and see if the CEO’s compensation is within a reasonable range, who is on the board and if insiders have been trading lately.

Past Performance

How has Golden Son performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

41.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GOLDENSON has a large one-off loss of BDT382.4M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: GOLDENSON became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GOLDENSON has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 41% per year.

Accelerating Growth: GOLDENSON has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: GOLDENSON has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Consumer Durables industry (43.4%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: GOLDENSON's Return on Equity (2.9%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Golden Son's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GOLDENSON's short term assets (BDT4.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (BDT2.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: GOLDENSON's short term assets (BDT4.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (BDT2.1B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GOLDENSON's net debt to equity ratio (98.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: GOLDENSON's debt to equity ratio has increased from 41.8% to 100.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GOLDENSON's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (6.4%).

Interest Coverage: GOLDENSON's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (13.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Golden Son current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

1.49%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: GOLDENSON's dividend (1.49%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the BD market (1.2%).

High Dividend: GOLDENSON's dividend (1.49%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the BD market (3.75%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GOLDENSON's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GOLDENSON's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (45.5%), GOLDENSON's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: GOLDENSON is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Belal Ahmed

no data

Tenure

Mr. Belal Ahmed serves as a Director of Golden Son Limited and Janata Insurance Company Ltd. He served as Chairman of the Board at Janata Insurance Company Limited. Mr. Ahmed serves as the Managing Directo...

Board Members

Experienced Board: GOLDENSON's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/07 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/04 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30