Tourism Holdings Valuation

Is THL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of THL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: THL (A$1.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$2.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: THL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for THL?

Key metric: As THL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for THL. This is calculated by dividing THL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is THL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	10.7x
Earnings	NZ$39.38m
Market Cap	NZ$422.52m

THL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.5x
PEG Ratio	0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does THL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for THL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.5x
A2B A2B Australia	2.4x	n/a	AU$181.3m
KLS Kelsian Group	18.2x	9.7%	AU$1.1b
LAU Lindsay Australia	10.2x	12.6%	AU$277.1m
AQZ Alliance Aviation Services	7.2x	12.9%	AU$435.6m
THL Tourism Holdings	10.7x	20.5%	AU$422.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: THL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does THL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Transportation Industry?

8 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

8 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: THL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the Global Transportation industry average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is THL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

THL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.7x
Fair PE Ratio	12.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: THL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst THL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$1.73	AU$2.89 +67.4%	28.0%	AU$3.97	AU$1.72	n/a	4
Nov ’25	AU$1.77	AU$2.89 +63.2%	28.0%	AU$3.98	AU$1.73	n/a	4
Oct ’25	AU$1.63	AU$2.98 +82.6%	25.4%	AU$4.03	AU$1.93	n/a	4
Sep ’25	AU$1.90	AU$2.98 +56.6%	25.4%	AU$4.03	AU$1.93	n/a	4
Aug ’25	AU$2.02	AU$3.00 +48.6%	28.1%	AU$4.11	AU$1.77	n/a	4
Jul ’25	AU$1.66	AU$3.00 +81.4%	28.1%	AU$4.11	AU$1.77	n/a	4
Jun ’25	AU$1.75	AU$3.00 +71.5%	28.1%	AU$4.11	AU$1.77	n/a	4
May ’25	AU$2.61	AU$4.49 +71.8%	12.1%	AU$5.04	AU$3.59	n/a	4
Apr ’25	AU$2.89	AU$4.49 +55.2%	12.1%	AU$5.04	AU$3.59	n/a	4
Mar ’25	AU$3.18	AU$4.49 +41.0%	12.1%	AU$5.04	AU$3.59	n/a	4
Feb ’25	AU$3.53	AU$4.37 +23.9%	13.8%	AU$5.24	AU$3.54	n/a	4
Jan ’25	AU$3.63	AU$4.37 +20.5%	13.8%	AU$5.24	AU$3.54	n/a	4
Dec ’24	AU$3.33	AU$4.41 +32.4%	13.8%	AU$5.28	AU$3.57	n/a	4
Nov ’24	AU$3.03	AU$4.41 +45.5%	13.8%	AU$5.28	AU$3.57	AU$1.77	4
Oct ’24	AU$3.50	AU$4.66 +33.2%	8.3%	AU$5.17	AU$4.23	AU$1.63	3
Sep ’24	AU$3.45	AU$4.67 +35.5%	8.3%	AU$5.18	AU$4.24	AU$1.90	3
Aug ’24	AU$3.22	AU$4.57 +41.8%	6.9%	AU$4.96	AU$4.19	AU$2.02	3
Jul ’24	AU$3.52	AU$4.57 +29.7%	6.9%	AU$4.96	AU$4.19	AU$1.66	3
Jun ’24	AU$3.45	AU$4.74 +37.4%	7.8%	AU$5.22	AU$4.32	AU$1.75	3
May ’24	AU$3.96	AU$4.72 +19.3%	9.1%	AU$5.29	AU$4.26	AU$2.61	3
Apr ’24	AU$3.78	AU$4.72 +25.0%	9.1%	AU$5.29	AU$4.26	AU$2.89	3
Mar ’24	AU$3.79	AU$4.69 +23.7%	9.1%	AU$5.25	AU$4.23	AU$3.18	3
Feb ’24	AU$3.57	AU$4.21 +17.8%	9.3%	AU$4.74	AU$3.82	AU$3.53	3
Jan ’24	AU$3.40	AU$4.21 +23.7%	9.3%	AU$4.74	AU$3.82	AU$3.63	3
Dec ’23	n/a	AU$4.13 0%	10.7%	AU$4.57	AU$3.69	AU$3.33	2
Nov ’23	n/a	AU$4.06 0%	9.2%	AU$4.43	AU$3.68	AU$3.03	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.