Kelsian Group Limited (ASX:KLS) Stock's 28% Dive Might Signal An Opportunity But It Requires Some Scrutiny

The Kelsian Group Limited (ASX:KLS) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 28%. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 53% loss during that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, Kelsian Group may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.9x, since almost half of all companies in Australia have P/E ratios greater than 18x and even P/E's higher than 31x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.

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Kelsian Group certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

Kelsian Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 53% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 49% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the eight analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 16% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 16% growth per year, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

In light of this, it's peculiar that Kelsian Group's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.

The Final Word

Kelsian Group's recently weak share price has pulled its P/E below most other companies. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Kelsian Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Kelsian Group that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Kelsian Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.