Stock Analysis

Despite delivering investors losses of 33% over the past 3 years, Praemium (ASX:PPS) has been growing its earnings

ASX:PPS
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While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Praemium Limited (ASX:PPS) share price has gained 25% in the last three months. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 38% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

The recent uptick of 12% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Praemium

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Although the share price is down over three years, Praemium actually managed to grow EPS by 1.2% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's pretty reasonable to suspect the market was previously to bullish on the stock, and has since moderated expectations. However, taking a look at other business metrics might shed a bit more light on the share price action.

Revenue is actually up 15% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Praemium more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:PPS Earnings and Revenue Growth April 22nd 2024

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Praemium's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that Praemium's TSR, at -33% is higher than its share price return of -38%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 8.2% in the last year, Praemium shareholders lost 32%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 2%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Praemium better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Praemium you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Praemium is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.