Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Wesfarmers Limited's (ASX:WES) Shares

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 25.6x Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Australia have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Recent times have been pleasing for Wesfarmers as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Is There Enough Growth For Wesfarmers?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Wesfarmers would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.8% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 51% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 7.5% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 17% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it concerning that Wesfarmers is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Wesfarmers currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Wesfarmers that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Wesfarmers' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.