Harvey Norman Holdings Limited

ASX:HVN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$6.2b

Harvey Norman Holdings Valuation

Is HVN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HVN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HVN (A$4.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HVN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HVN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HVN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.8x
PEG Ratio2.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HVN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HVN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35x
MYR Myer Holdings
15.1x1.6%AU$694.2m
WES Wesfarmers
34.5x8.3%AU$86.4b
KGN Kogan.com
65.6x32.0%AU$436.7m
TRS Reject Shop
24.7x35.9%AU$116.4m
HVN Harvey Norman Holdings
16.6x7.6%AU$6.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the peer average (35x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HVN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.4%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.4%
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No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (20.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HVN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HVN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.6x
Fair PE Ratio18.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HVN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$4.99
AU$4.77
-4.4%
11.4%AU$5.60AU$4.00n/a13
Aug ’25AU$4.81
AU$4.75
-1.3%
11.8%AU$5.60AU$4.00n/a13
Jul ’25AU$4.18
AU$4.67
+11.6%
10.8%AU$5.50AU$4.00n/a13
Jun ’25AU$4.46
AU$4.71
+5.5%
9.9%AU$5.50AU$4.00n/a13
May ’25AU$4.47
AU$4.69
+4.9%
9.6%AU$5.50AU$4.00n/a13
Apr ’25AU$5.15
AU$4.69
-8.9%
9.6%AU$5.50AU$4.00n/a13
Mar ’25AU$5.00
AU$4.68
-6.4%
10.5%AU$5.50AU$3.90n/a12
Feb ’25AU$4.39
AU$3.92
-10.8%
15.0%AU$5.00AU$3.15n/a12
Jan ’25AU$4.20
AU$3.65
-13.1%
10.4%AU$4.60AU$3.15n/a12
Dec ’24AU$3.78
AU$3.65
-3.4%
10.4%AU$4.60AU$3.15n/a12
Nov ’24AU$3.59
AU$3.63
+1.0%
10.7%AU$4.60AU$3.15n/a12
Oct ’24AU$3.87
AU$3.90
+0.9%
11.9%AU$5.02AU$3.39n/a13
Sep ’24AU$4.12
AU$3.94
-4.4%
13.9%AU$5.26AU$3.39n/a14
Aug ’24AU$3.80
AU$3.76
-1.1%
16.5%AU$5.26AU$3.10AU$4.8114
Jul ’24AU$3.48
AU$3.82
+9.9%
16.2%AU$5.26AU$3.10AU$4.1814
Jun ’24AU$3.36
AU$4.07
+21.2%
14.4%AU$5.26AU$3.20AU$4.4613
May ’24AU$3.64
AU$4.07
+11.9%
14.4%AU$5.26AU$3.20AU$4.4713
Apr ’24AU$3.58
AU$3.97
+11.0%
13.1%AU$5.26AU$3.20AU$5.1513
Mar ’24AU$3.76
AU$4.07
+8.3%
14.0%AU$5.26AU$3.20AU$5.0014
Feb ’24AU$4.40
AU$4.43
+0.7%
11.0%AU$5.40AU$3.50AU$4.3914
Jan ’24AU$4.13
AU$4.40
+6.6%
10.6%AU$5.40AU$3.50AU$4.2014
Dec ’23AU$4.32
AU$4.50
+4.2%
10.6%AU$5.76AU$3.85AU$3.7813
Nov ’23AU$4.23
AU$4.48
+5.9%
11.5%AU$5.82AU$3.60AU$3.5913
Oct ’23AU$4.04
AU$4.48
+10.9%
11.5%AU$5.82AU$3.60AU$3.8713
Sep ’23AU$4.19
AU$4.48
+7.0%
11.5%AU$5.82AU$3.60AU$4.1213
Aug ’23AU$4.13
AU$4.63
+12.0%
15.2%AU$5.86AU$3.35AU$3.8013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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