Cedar Woods Properties Limited's (ASX:CWP) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 29, 2021
ASX:CWP

Most readers would already be aware that Cedar Woods Properties' (ASX:CWP) stock increased significantly by 8.8% over the past month. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. In this article, we decided to focus on Cedar Woods Properties' ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for Cedar Woods Properties

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cedar Woods Properties is:

8.3% = AU$33m ÷ AU$398m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each A$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made A$0.08 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Cedar Woods Properties' Earnings Growth And 8.3% ROE

At first glance, Cedar Woods Properties' ROE doesn't look very promising. Although a closer study shows that the company's ROE is higher than the industry average of 3.8% which we definitely can't overlook. But then again, seeing that Cedar Woods Properties' net income shrunk at a rate of 6.4% in the past five years, makes us think again. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. So that could be one of the factors that are causing earnings growth to shrink.

Next, we compared Cedar Woods Properties' performance against the industry and found that the industry shrunk its earnings at 12% in the same period, which suggests that the company's earnings have been shrinking at a slower rate than its industry, While this is not particularly good, its not particularly bad either.

past-earnings-growth
ASX:CWP Past Earnings Growth April 30th 2021

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for CWP? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report

Is Cedar Woods Properties Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 54% (implying that 46% of the profits are retained), most of Cedar Woods Properties' profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run.

In addition, Cedar Woods Properties has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 61%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Cedar Woods Properties' future ROE will be 9.9% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Summary

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Cedar Woods Properties' performance. Specifically, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a respectable rate of return. Investors may have benefitted, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings. As discussed earlier, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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