Aspen Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Aspen Group's revenue is forecast to decline at 37.5% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 19.2% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 26.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 12.8% in 3 years.

Key information

19.2%

Earnings growth rate

26.5%

EPS growth rate

REITs earnings growth	31.6%
Revenue growth rate	-37.5%
Future return on equity	12.8%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	17 Nov 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:APZ - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2027	37	96	N/A	41	1
6/30/2026	36	81	N/A	36	2
6/30/2025	34	78	N/A	34	2
6/30/2024	91	48	31	31	N/A
3/31/2024	83	50	26	26	N/A
12/31/2023	76	51	22	22	N/A
9/30/2023	71	53	20	20	N/A
6/30/2023	66	54	19	19	N/A
3/31/2023	62	63	20	20	N/A
12/31/2022	58	72	20	20	N/A
9/30/2022	53	74	19	19	N/A
6/30/2022	47	75	17	17	N/A
12/31/2021	38	45	13	13	N/A
9/30/2021	37	35	13	13	N/A
6/30/2021	36	25	13	13	N/A
12/31/2020	32	18	12	12	N/A
9/30/2020	31	15	11	11	N/A
6/30/2020	31	12	11	11	N/A
12/31/2019	32	2	8	8	N/A
9/30/2019	31	0	6	6	N/A
6/30/2019	29	-1	4	4	N/A
12/31/2018	26	2	3	3	N/A
9/30/2018	24	1	4	4	N/A
6/30/2018	22	0	6	6	N/A
12/31/2017	17	-2	N/A	5	N/A
9/30/2017	16	-1	N/A	5	N/A
6/30/2017	15	0	N/A	5	N/A
12/31/2016	13	1	N/A	4	N/A
9/30/2016	27	2	N/A	N/A	N/A
6/30/2016	33	6	N/A	5	N/A
12/31/2015	56	-6	N/A	4	N/A
9/30/2015	44	-30	N/A	N/A	N/A
6/30/2015	49	-30	N/A	3	N/A
12/31/2014	20	-27	N/A	34	N/A
9/30/2014	18	-10	N/A	N/A	N/A
6/30/2014	15	-23	N/A	41	N/A
12/31/2013	27	-23	N/A	-3	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: APZ's forecast earnings growth (19.2% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: APZ's earnings (19.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: APZ's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: APZ's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-37.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: APZ's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-37.5% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: APZ's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/30 00:14
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Aspen Group is covered by 6 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Andrew MacFarlane	Bell Potter
Matthew Nicholas	CGS International
Ronan Barratt	MA Moelis Australia Securities Pty Ltd

Aspen Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target increased by 8.7% to AU$3.11

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 37%, EPS upgraded

Price target increased by 21% to AU$2.96

Price target increased by 10% to AU$2.45

Price target increased to AU$2.03

Price target raised to AU$1.28

Recent updates

Final dividend of AU$0.05 announced

Less than half of directors are independent

Price target increased by 8.7% to AU$3.11

Aspen Group Limited Announces Board Changes

Joint CEO & Executive Director exercised options to buy AU$574k worth of stock.

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$398k worth of stock

Aspen Group, Annual General Meeting, Nov 15, 2024

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 37%, EPS upgraded

Aspen Group Provides Distribution Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2025

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint

First half dividend of AU$0.043 announced

Aspen Group to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Aug 15, 2024

New minor risk - Shareholder dilution

Independent Non-Executive Chairman recently bought AU$77k worth of stock

Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) cancelled the acquisition of remaining 86.3% stake in Eureka Group Holdings Limited (ASX:EGH).

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.12 (vs AU$0.15 in 1H 2023)

Eureka Targeted as Takeovers Kick Off

Price target increased by 21% to AU$2.96

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.043 per share at 4.9% yield

Aspen Group Declares Dividend for the Period of Six Months Ending December 31, 2023, Payable on February 29, 2024

Aspen Group, Annual General Meeting, Nov 22, 2023

Aspen Group, Annual General Meeting, Nov 22, 2023

Joint CEO & Executive Director exercised options to buy AU$527k worth of stock.

Independent Non-Executive Chairman recently bought AU$65k worth of stock

Price target increased by 10% to AU$2.45

Aspen Group Limited Appoints Edwina Gilbert as Director

New minor risk - Profit margin trend

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.31 (vs AU$0.55 in FY 2022)

Independent Non-Executive Chairman recently bought AU$90k worth of stock

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.15 (vs AU$0.22 in 1H 2022)

Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) agreed to acquire Black Dolphin Resort Motel for AUD 5.2 million.

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.035 per share

Aspen Group Estimates Distribution for the First Half of Fiscal Year 2023, Payable on or About 24 February 2023

Less than half of directors are independent

Aspen Group has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 36.34 million.

Aspen Group, Annual General Meeting, Nov 18, 2022

Joint CEO & Executive Director exercised options to buy AU$479k worth of stock.

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.55 (vs AU$0.22 in FY 2021)

Aspen Group Announces Dividend Distribution for the Second Half of Fiscal Year 2022, Payable on 25 August 2022

Aspen Group Announces Estimated Distribution for the Second Half of Fiscal Year 2022, Payable on or About 25 August 2022

Aspen Group to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Aug 18, 2022

Independent Non-Executive Chairman recently bought AU$57k worth of stock

Price target increased to AU$2.03

Insufficient new directors

Insufficient new directors

First half 2022 earnings released

Now 24% undervalued

Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) completed the acquisition of Meadowbrooke Lifestyle Estate in Boyanup.

Joint CEO & Executive Director recently bought AU$969k worth of stock

Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) completed the acquisition of Wodonga Gardens Retirement Estate.

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.22 (vs AU$0.12 in FY 2020)

Aspen Group has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 23.21515 million.

Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) signed a definitive agreement to acquire Wodonga Gardens Retirement Estate for AUD 6 million.

Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) completed the acquisition of Lewis Fields Retirement Village.

Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) entered into conditional contract to acquire Lewis Fields Retirement Village for AUD 2.4 million.

New 90-day high: AU$1.22

Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) completed the acquisition of build-to-rent development at Burleigh Heads, Queensland.

Independent Non-Executive Chairman recently bought AU$401k worth of stock

Aspen Group to Report First Half, 2021 Results on Feb 25, 2021

Aspen Group Announces Change of Joint Company Secretary

New 90-day high: AU$1.19

Price target raised to AU$1.28

New 90-day high: AU$1.10

New 90-day high: AU$1.07

Earnings released

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity