Mesoblast Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Mesoblast is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 61.5% and 45.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 94.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.5% in 3 years.

Key information

61.5%

Earnings growth rate

94.4%

EPS growth rate

Biotechs earnings growth	15.4%
Revenue growth rate	45.8%
Future return on equity	15.5%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	05 Nov 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

CHIA:MSB - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2027	463	106	87	163	5
6/30/2026	239	-13	-48	37	6
6/30/2025	17	-82	-67	-60	5
6/30/2024	6	-88	-49	-48	N/A
3/31/2024	7	-82	-54	-54	N/A
12/31/2023	7	-73	-59	-59	N/A
9/30/2023	8	-81	-62	-62	N/A
6/30/2023	8	-82	-64	-63	N/A
3/31/2023	8	-81	-61	-61	N/A
12/31/2022	8	-84	-60	-60	N/A
9/30/2022	8	-86	-62	-62	N/A
6/30/2022	10	-91	-66	-66	N/A
3/31/2022	10	-92	-71	-71	N/A
12/31/2021	10	-97	-81	-80	N/A
9/30/2021	10	-97	-92	-91	N/A
6/30/2021	7	-99	-102	-101	N/A
3/31/2021	6	-109	-104	-101	N/A
12/31/2020	16	-98	-99	-97	N/A
9/30/2020	16	-97	-71	-69	N/A
6/30/2020	32	-78	-59	-56	N/A
3/31/2020	33	-66	-57	-56	N/A
12/31/2019	22	-76	-58	-57	N/A
9/30/2019	22	-76	-54	-54	N/A
6/30/2019	17	-90	-58	-58	N/A
3/31/2019	16	-90	-59	-59	N/A
12/31/2018	16	-86	-57	-57	N/A
9/30/2018	28	-48	-74	-74	N/A
6/30/2018	17	-35	-75	-75	N/A
3/31/2018	16	-42	N/A	-78	N/A
12/31/2017	16	-30	N/A	-84	N/A
9/30/2017	3	-64	N/A	-95	N/A
6/30/2017	2	-77	N/A	-95	N/A
3/31/2017	29	-1	N/A	-90	N/A
12/31/2016	32	-8	N/A	-86	N/A
9/30/2016	35	-11	N/A	-81	N/A
6/30/2016	43	-4	N/A	-88	N/A
3/31/2016	20	-83	N/A	-97	N/A
12/31/2015	20	-88	N/A	-98	N/A
9/30/2015	20	-94	N/A	-101	N/A
6/30/2015	20	-96	N/A	-101	N/A
3/31/2015	21	-85	N/A	-87	N/A
12/31/2014	24	-84	N/A	-78	N/A
9/30/2014	26	-75	N/A	-80	N/A
6/30/2014	23	-76	N/A	-75	N/A
3/31/2014	30	-68	N/A	-73	N/A
12/31/2013	35	-58	N/A	-69	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MSB is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: MSB is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: MSB is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MSB's revenue (45.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MSB's revenue (45.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MSB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.5%).

Mesoblast Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2027

No longer forecast to breakeven

No longer forecast to breakeven

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026

No longer forecast to breakeven

Forecast to breakeven in 2025

Recent updates

Mesoblast Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 15, 2024

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2027

Full year 2024 earnings released: US$0.089 loss per share (vs US$0.11 loss in FY 2023)

Mesoblast Limited Announces the United States Food and Drug Administration Has Accepted Its Biologics License Application (Bla) Resubmission for Ryoncil®

Mesoblast Limited Announces Patient Enrollment Commences in Pivotal Phase 3 Trial of Rexlemestrocel-L for Chronic Low Back Pain

Mesoblast Limited Resources Biologics Licence Application (BLA) with United States Food & Drug Administration (FDA) for Approval of Ryoncil in the Treatment of Children with SR-aGVHD

Mesoblast to File Biologics License Application for Ryoncil FDA Approval Next Week

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$200k worth of stock

No longer forecast to breakeven

United States Food & Drug Administration Notifies Mesoblast Limited of Available Clinical Data from Phase 3 Trial Appear Sufficient to Support BLA Submission for Remestemcel-L in Children with Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease

New minor risk - Share price stability

Mesoblast Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 0.93 million.

New major risk - Shareholder dilution

Mesoblast Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 97.041224 million.

Mesoblast Limited Announces United States Food & Drug Administration Supports Accelerated Approval Pathway for Rexlemestrocel-L in End-Stage Heart Failure Patients with A Left Ventricular Assist Device

No longer forecast to breakeven

First half 2024 earnings released: US$0.038 loss per share (vs US$0.057 loss in 1H 2023)

United States Food & Drug Administration Grants Mesoblast Rare Pediatric Disease Designation for Revascor®? (Rexlemestrocel-L) in Children with Congenital Heart Disease

Mesoblast Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2023

Jane Bell AM Appointed Chair of Mesoblast Audit and Risk Committee

Mesoblast Limited Provides an Update on the Path to Approval for Its Lead-Product Candidate Remestemcel-L in the Treatment of Pediatric and Adult Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease

Full year 2023 earnings released: US$0.11 loss per share (vs US$0.14 loss in FY 2022)

New major risk - Share price stability

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026

Mesoblast Limited Receives Complete Response from U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Biologics License Application for Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease in Children

Mesoblast Limited Appoints Dr. Philip R. Krause, Member of the Board of Directors, to Formal Strategic Advisory Role

Third quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.025 loss per share (vs US$0.033 loss in 3Q 2022)

No longer forecast to breakeven

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.033 loss per share (vs US$0.04 loss in 2Q 2022)

Remestemcel-L Clinical and Potency Studies Presented At Premier Meeting of Transplantation Research and Therapy

Mesoblast Limited Announces FDA Grants Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy Designation for Rexlemestrocel-L in Chronic Low Back Pain

Mesoblast Limited Resubmits Biologic License Application to FDA for Remestemcel-L in Children With Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease (Sr-aGVHD)

First quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.024 loss per share (vs US$0.035 loss in 1Q 2022)

Mesoblast Limited Announces Top-Line Long-Term Survival Results for Remestemcel-L from its Pivotal Phase 3 Trial (GVHD-001) in Children with Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease

Mesoblast Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 23, 2022

Mesoblast Limited Submits New Information to FDA File in Response to Items in the CRL to the Remestemcel-L BLA for SR-aGVHD

Insider recently bought AU$111k worth of stock

Full year 2022 earnings released: US$0.14 loss per share (vs US$0.16 loss in FY 2021)

Mesoblast Limited Announces Board Changes

Mesoblast Limited Announces Single Intervention with Rexlemestrocel-L Improves Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction At 12 Months, Preceding Long-Term Reduction in Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events

Forecast to breakeven in 2025

Mesoblast Limited Provides Litigation Update

Third quarter 2022 earnings released: US$0.033 loss per share (vs US$0.044 loss in 3Q 2021)

Mesoblast Limited Provides Update on Survival Outcomes in Covid-19 ARDS Patients Treated with Remestemcel-L

Mesoblast Limited Announces Class Action Proceeding in the Federal Court of Australia

Mesoblast Limited Announces Executive Changes

Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint

Donal O'Dwyer Retires from the Board of Mesoblast Limited

Mesoblast Limited Announces Positive Results from an Interim Analysis of the First Patient Cohort in the Randomized, Controlled Study of Remestemcel-L by Direct Endoscopic Delivery to Areas of Inflammation in Patients with Medically Refractory Ulcerative Colitis or Crohn's Colitis

Mesoblast Limited Appoints Eric Rose as Chief Medical Officer

Forecast to breakeven in 2024

Mesoblast Limited Announces 36-Month Results of Phase 3 Trial in Chronic Low Back Pain

Mesoblast Provides Update Following Meeting with FDA’s OTAT on Remestemcel-L for Children with Acute Graft Versus Host Disease

No longer forecast to breakeven

Mesoblast Limited Receives Feedback from the US Food & Drug Administration’S Office of Tissues and Advanced Therapies on the Phase 3 Program of Rexlemestrocel-L

Insufficient new directors

First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat

Mesoblast Limited announced that it expects to receive $90 million in funding from Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.

Forecast to breakeven in 2024

Full year 2021 earnings released: US$0.15 loss per share (vs US$0.15 loss in FY 2020)

Mesoblast Presents Respiratory Function Results of COVID-19 ARDS Trial at Pulmonary Disease Conference

Mesoblast Limited Provides Update on Program for Chronic Low Back Pain Due to Degenerative Disc Disease

Forecast to breakeven in 2024

Third quarter 2021 earnings released: US$0.044 loss per share (vs US$0.028 loss in 3Q 2020)

Forecast to breakeven in 2024

Mesoblast Limited Improves Outcomes in Inflammatory Lung Disease with Remestemcel-L Published in Respiratory Research Journal

Mesoblast Limited Announces the 60 Day Results from the Randomized Controlled Trial of remestemcel-L in 222 Ventilator-Dependent COVID-19 Patients with Moderate/Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) Which Had Been Halted After the Third Interim Analysis

Mesoblast Limited announced that it expects to receive AUD 138.251367 million in funding

Revenue beats expectations